Excessive rain threat...............off the charts on the East Coast, starting tomorrow.

The new threat, starting Thursday will be from Hurricane Florence along the East Coast!

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk. Maybe some tornadoes with Florence.  Hit the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Thursday.   Hot Southwest, spewing into the Plains. Pleasant but then warming.

Highs days 3-7. Very Warm Midwest, Hot South, Florence East!

New cold surge Northwest, then Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, then Northeast late in this period.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Warming up again next week to well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore. With low storage, it's still possible to give a bullish kick to natural gas if it was going to last.

Very cool Northwest to N.Plains, which moves east might be a bit bullish too.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Humid air has been showed to the Gulf Coast and Southeast and also along the East Coast.

Cool Canadian High Pressure in the Midwest.  Warm and dry winds on the backside in the Plains. Florence chugging west in  the Western Atlantic.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image.  

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.      

Very well defined Florence in the Atlantic is showing up and taking aim on the East Coast!!!

Rains the past 24 hours.  Not much.

Rains the past 24 hours.  Not much.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!

Drier this week, which will minimize the problems to the crops.

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

But September brought too much rain!  Drying out now.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today/tomorrow:   New cool surge Northwest. Warming East.

In 5+ days:

Very warm East. Cold in Canada hitting N.Plains on the way to Upper Midwest to Northeast.

In 10+ days:

Positive Anomalies rebuilding Plains to Midwest.

Day 15  Weak anomalies.    

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Zz ensembles from Wednesday are all over the place. Not good for discerning late September weather with much skill.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 27, 2018 00 UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

The previous 2 days featured an extremely  impressive upper level ridge in Western Canada to Central Canada. Now we have something different. This is actually a result of late week 2 changes in models going forward to this period.

So we can have very low confidence in this projection below.

Septembers gradually gets cooler, almost every year. Heating degree days(from cold weather) will soon be replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

NWS Week 2 maps below.  Nothing exciting. Cooling off a bit in the northern border states. Still very warm south. Rains increasing in some places but no heavy rain signal.

The grains may be trading harvest weather now at times. Time to start watching South America pretty soon!

6-10 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Extreme weather days 3-7.  Hurricane Florence and the remnants will be the highlight.

The GFS continues farther north/right, the European model farther south/left with the track after Saturday.

Here are the NWS days 3-7 maps for surface features and total rain. Looks much closer to the GFS. That pink on the rain total map is the 20 inch contour!

Last 12z GFS forecast for rain totals.