Grains Wednesday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:12 a.m.

For weather that effects crops, please go here:

USDA report out at 11am!

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:14 a.m.
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Crop condition report from Tuesday:

Corn +1%  beans +2%.

A bit surprising considering all the rains in parts of the belt.

Cotton deteriorated a bit.

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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Export inspections from Monday:

Beans pretty good, wheat ok, corn not so good.

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:16 a.m.
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Was thinking the lows are in for corn before the USDA report earlier this month +favorable weather for filling in  August  but am not sure.  

Too much rain helped the corn to bounce recently. Harvest pressure is looming.

CZ  around 366.......16c off the lows right now and 62c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

3 month below September(front month) 

1 year below


5 year below                


 10 year below                

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:19 a.m.
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New low for SX today ahead of the expected very bearish USDA report.

I thought the lows were in for beans but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history!

Also, outstanding August weather has increased the crop size.

 Too much rain had been providing some  support but it will be drier this week.

These are 10 year lows and over $2 below the  $10.60 below late May highs. 

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!

Charts below still Sept contract.

Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 


Soybeans 1 year chart below   


Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are below the 10 year lows!

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

In many years, the month of August into early September features some price much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows. 

However, this August featured great weather and a record crop and pushed us back near the lows.

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in mid Sept to early Oct, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. That does not always happen and each year is different.

By mcfarm - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:23 a.m.
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somebody has to say it out loud.....putting in a bottom today

By Jim_M - Sept. 12, 2018, 11:37 a.m.
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I do wonder, though I don't know how anyone could think beans are worth more.  It's only going to get worse.  More SA acreage coming online.  More more more.  When is it enough?  

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 9:29 p.m.
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All the corn/bean talk has been going on in another thread...........which is wonderful!

I'll just add this review of the report here:                                                       phongphan5922/Thinkstock                  


From Farm Futures:

Afternoon Market Recap for Sept. 12, 2018


    WASDE tilts corn prices sharply lower.

By metmike - Sept. 12, 2018, 9:32 p.m.
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#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat