KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 14, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous +0.0%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.5%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)\
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.3%; previous 78.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.0)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 96.0; previous 95.3)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 87.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 107.8)
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.1%)
Monday, September 17, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 25.6)
Employment Idx (previous 13.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 17.1)
Prices Received (previous 20.0)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 7457.68.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7457.68 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7457.68. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the week's rally.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 2879.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2919.50. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is last-Friday's lowcrossing at 2879.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2849.62.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 141-18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 145-06. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 145-16. First support is the reaction low crossing at 141-18. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-04.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 119.065. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.318 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.222. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.318. First support is the reaction low crossing at 119.065. Second support is August's low crossing at 118.275.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: OctoberNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 66.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 71.63 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 71.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 71.63. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 66.86. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.89.
October heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 221.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off July's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 230.93. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 221.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.74.
October unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 211.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.31. Second support is August's low crossing at 186.62.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.865 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 2.688 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.865. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 2.931. First support is August's low crossing at 2.751. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.688.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the the late-August low crossing at 93.93. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.48.
The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 118.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 116.12 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 118.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is August's low crossing at 114.09. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 113.54.
The December British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1.3281 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2995 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1.3281. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735. Third support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0343 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0343. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0245.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 77.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.74. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.05. First support is September's low crossing at 75.75. Second support is July's low crossing at 75.47.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If first resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0901. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.0894.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1215.20 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.525 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.525. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.160. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.79 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.79. Second resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 283.80. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.68 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.68 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.48 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.
December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.01 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.57 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.66 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off the late-July high, monthly support crossing at 8.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.66 3/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 8.81 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 8.21 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.17.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's breakout to the downside of the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.61 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 29.00. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 27.63. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.13 at $55.68.
October hogs closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the late-August low, August's high crossing at 59.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 57.25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 59.50. First support is the late-August low crossing at 48.92. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.
October cattle closed down $0.68 at 110.80.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 112.25 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. First support is August's low crossing at 106.20. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.38 at $155.40.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 155.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156.05. First support is September's low crossing at 148.10. Second support is August's low crossing at 145.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 22.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 11.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.56 would temper the near-term bullish outlook.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 77.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!