Weather Friday
20 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 8:58 a.m.

September 14th. Make it a great day! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a it.

The story continues along the East Coast from Hurricane Florence, with torrential rains!!

Drying thru the weekend in the Cornbelt has been great but unwelcome rains from Central Plains to Upper Midwest next week.

 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals. THATS A 20 INCH RAIN BAND IN PINK ON THE NC COAST!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9 a.m.
Like Reply

Excessive rain the charts right along the East Coast of North Carolina to S.Carolina! Shifting slowly west.

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9 a.m.
Like Reply

Severe Storm Risk. Maybe some tornadoes with Florence.  Hit the map for full screen.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:03 a.m.
Like Reply

High Temperatures today and Saturday.   Widespread warmth..........even hot in a few spots. Cool Northwest.


By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:06 a.m.
Like Reply

Highs days 3-7. Widespread warmth, then chilly air invades the north while it stays very warm south.

New cold surge Northwest, then Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, then Northeast.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:09 a.m.
Like Reply

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 8 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore.

Very cool Northwest to N.Plains.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

More humid air has been returning.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:14 a.m.
Like Reply

High Pressure centered in the Great Lakes.  Very warm winds on the backside. Florence is on the coast.

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:16 a.m.
Like Reply

Here is the latest radar image.  Florence will continue to steal the show. Radars show the well defined counterclockwise circulation. Spiral rain bands on the periphery, outside of the eye wall, which is on shore.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Southeast sector loop

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:17 a.m.
Like Reply

Satellite picture.      

Very well defined Florence on the coast of North Carolina!!

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Rains the past 24 hours.  Not much................except for North Carolina.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:21 a.m.
Like Reply

Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!

Drier this week, which is mimimizing problems to the crops but wet again next week from C.Plains to Upper Midwest. Flooding from Florence is happening and getting worse.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

But September brought too much rain!  Drying out now.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:23 a.m.
Like Reply

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.


Drought Monitor for conusDrought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:26 a.m.
Like Reply

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today/tomorrow:   New cool surge Northwest. Warm Plains to Northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product

In 5+ days:

Very warm East. Cold in Canada hitting N.Plains on the way to Upper Midwest to Northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product

In 10+ days:

Positive Anomalies Plains to Midwest. Cold West.
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product

Day 15  Weak anomalies but looking cool in the North.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:27 a.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Zz ensembles from Friday. Ridge west trough east emerging much stronger now. Cool East!


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 29, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 9:33 a.m.
Like Reply

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Upper level ridging in Canada. 

Septembers gradually get cooler, almost every year. Heating degree days(from cold weather) will soon be replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 3:54 p.m.
Like Reply

 NWS service extended maps for days 6-10, then 8-14. Looking pretty wet in much of the country. Very warm southeast half, chilly northwest 1/4.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 3:57 p.m.
Like Reply

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Last of Florence in the Northeast. New heavy rains in the Upper Midwest.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 4:30 p.m.
Like Reply

    Every Friday, the NWS releases a week 3-4 forecast. The latest one is below.  For the middle of the country, equal chances of being on either side of does this mean conditions will be average?

Well, it might mean higher odds of average but in this case, the guidance is pretty contrasting in some locations, especially the Plains eastward.  The European model has some pretty chilly air from Canada penetrating that far south but other models not as much and they keep it a Bermuda high in the Southeast much stronger and farther west.

EC means equal chances. It can mean that most guidance has temperatures close to average...........or it can mean that we have some guidance with temperatures well above average and other guidance well below the same place. Which is more like the case this time.

I like the idea of warm in the West and cooler east as we start out October but at time frame and time of year when its hard to sustain a large anomoly very long and thus almost impossible to predict one beyond 2 weeks. 

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 29 Sep 2018 to 12 Oct 2018
Updated: 14 Sep 2018

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability