Grains Friday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 10:12 a.m.

For weather that effects crops, go here:

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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USDA corn number, increasing yield higher than highest guess was the shocker on Wednesday:



By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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Was thinking the lows were in for corn before the bearish August USDA report. Then, favorable weather for filling in  August  added more yield.  The even more bearish Sept USDA report has us back to the July lows. 

On Thursday, we dropped to 349.5.

Too much rain last week helped the corn to bounce recently. Harvest pressure is looming.

CZ  around 350.......just off the lows right now and 78c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

3 month below September(front month) 

1 year below


5 year below                


 10 year below                

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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New low for SX Wednesday, of 821.25 BEFORE the expected very bearish USDA report.

In August the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history!

Outstanding August weather has increased the crop size even more.

 But the market bounced after the release of the expected bearish USDA Sept crop report. Harvest pressure is looming. Tariff news is an extreme wild card.

These are still at 10 year lows and over $2 below the  $10.60 below late May highs. 

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!

Charts below still Sept contract.

Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 


Soybeans 1 year chart below   


Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are below the 10 year lows!

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

However, this August featured great weather and a record crop and has pushed us back near the lows.

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in mid Sept to early Oct, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. That does not always happen and each year is different. We have massive supply in this particular year(2018) to deal with.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
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