Florence without climate change?
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Started by metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 12:12 a.m.

             From Florence-4 on our trading forum:

Wettest ever tropical system for North Carolina since 1950:

image

  By metmike - Sept. 16, 2018, 6:25 p.m.            

            This is going to put Florence in the top wettest tropical systems in the US.............since 1950. 68 years worth of records is actually not a very long time for weather records. For instance, half of the state high temperature records in the US were set in the 1930's. If the cut off was 1950, recent records would be the "hottest ever". 

Looks like Florence will make #8 on the list below.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wettest_tropical_cyclones_in_the_United_States


Rankmmin
PrecipitationStormLocationRef.
Wettest  tropical cyclones and their remnants on the United States Mainland
Highest-known totals
1153860.58Harvey 2017Nederland, Texas[1]
2121948.00Amelia 1978Medina, Texas[1]
3114845.20Easy 1950Yankeetown, Florida[1]
4114345.00Claudette 1979Alvin, Texas[1]
5103340.68Allison 2001Northwest Jefferson County, Texas[1]
697738.46Georges 1998Munson, Florida[1]
793236.71Danny 1997Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Alabama[1]
875629.76Unnamed 1960Port Lavaca #2, Texas[1]
970727.85Alberto 1994Americus, Georgia[1]
1069527.38Beulah 1967Pettus, Texas[1]


How much rain would have fallen if not for the "climate change" or "global warming" contribution from the warmer atmosphere and oceans?

We can estimate that an additional 5% more H2O was packed into the saturated air mass(+5% precipitable water). If we round off the record amount to 34 inches and multiply it by 5%, we get 1.7 inches. Let's round that up to 2 inches of extra rain, so the amount without global warming, theoretically would have been around 32 inches.

So theoretically, taking out the contribution from climate change/global warming would have dropped Florence from 8th place on the list above, down to..............8th place.........the same.

It would still have easily broken the state record for North Carolina, slightly warmer atmosphere or not.


For additional information about Florence go to this link:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/13159/


There appears to be some sort of snafu which will not allow additional comments below this page. However, you should be able to comment below the link above from the trading forum.

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