Grains Tuesday
8 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:32 a.m.

For weather that effects crops, go here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/13274/

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
Like Reply

USDA corn number, increasing yield higher than highest guess was the shocker last Wednesday:

                                                 

 

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
Like Reply

Crop condition. Not a factor unless weather gets too wet and stays wet.

Winter wheat planting going strong in the northern areas of HRW country(where the crop goes dormant earliest).


https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3818.txt

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
Like Reply

Export inspections.

Not bad corn, ok beans/wheat:


https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
Like Reply

As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July. 

However, this August featured great weather and a record crop and has pushed us back near the lows.

Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in mid Sept to early Oct, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. That does not always happen and each year is different. We've had an increase in supply late this year. More wet weather coming up in what has been one of the wettest Septembers ever.


By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
Like Reply

Was thinking the lows were in for corn before the bearish August USDA report. Then, favorable weather for filling in  August  added more yield.  The even more bearish Sept USDA report pushed us to new lows.


CZ  making new lows now 85c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.


Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   


3 month below December  contract


1 year below

                   

5 year below                

                   

 10 year below                

                   
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
Like Reply

New low for SX today!.

In August the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history!

Outstanding August weather has increased the crop size even more.


 Harvest pressure and negative seasonals are looming but wet weather this week offsets some of that bearishness. Tariff news is an extreme wild card.

These are still at 10 year lows and over $2.40 below the  $10.60 below late May highs. 



Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!


Charts November contract.


Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

                   



Soybeans 1 year chart below   

                   
                    


Soybeans 5 years below



Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are below the 10 year lows!

                   
By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 12:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Tariff Tuesday Sends Corn, Soybeans Lower


https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/farm-markets-off-to-rocky-start-monday

More trade news and harvest activity keep lid on rallies.


Also, Informa, the private analyst firm, released its 2019 U.S. Acreage estimates, Tuesday. Here they are:

 

  • Corn = 93.0 million 
  • Soybeans = 82.27 million 


By silverspiker - Sept. 19, 2018, 1:11 a.m.
Like Reply

3- 32 after 3-48 is broken...

3_16 next in December after 3-32 is broken