For the weather that effects crops(harvest-grains) go here:
USDA corn number, increasing yield higher than highest guess was the shocker last Wednesday:
As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July.
However, this August featured great weather and a record crop and has pushed us back near the lows.
Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in mid Sept to early Oct, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. That does not always happen and each year is different. We've had an increase in supply late this year. More wet weather coming up in what has been one of the wettest Septembers ever.
Was thinking the lows were in for corn before the bearish August USDA report. Then, favorable weather for filling in August added more yield. The even more bearish Sept USDA report pushed us to new lows.
CZ made new lows this week, now 83c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below December contract
1 year below
5 year below
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New low for SX yesterday at 812.25!.
In August the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever. 2019 to have the highest stocks in history!
Outstanding August weather has increased the crop size even more.
Harvest pressure and negative seasonals are looming but wet weather this week offsets some of that bearishness. Tariff news is an extreme wild card........as we saw on Tuesday.
These are still at 10 year lows and over $2.40 below the $10.60 below late May highs.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!
Charts November contract.
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are below the 10 year lows!
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https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/farm-markets-off-to-rocky-start-monday
More trade news and harvest activity keep lid on rallies.
Also, Informa, the private analyst firm, released its 2019 U.S. Acreage estimates, Tuesday. Here they are: