Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:18 a.m.

It's  September 22nd. We're all 1 day older! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


 The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Much too wet from the Ohio River Valley and points southwestward.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Southern Plains today, then moving northeast.




Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

Northeast today, then new strong system next week in the Midwest.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:22 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday:


 Very warm Southeast. Chilly Midwest to Northeast.  


                    

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:33 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

 Very warm to hot in the Southeast but chilly to cold air N. Rockies to N. Plains expands southeast...........at times.    CDD's from heat still in the southeast. But most significant HDD's of the season in the north. This is what rallied natural gas last week.




http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:35 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


 Above average Southeast. Well below normal N.Plains.

Huge contrast between cold blue anomalies N.Plains and very warm red anomalies southeast.  Residential heating in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest/ blue, Residential cooling in Southeast. This was bullish for natural gas last week.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:38 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 period:


Active cold fronts moving southeast and stalling/dying that trigger rains.......more of it as they encounter higher moisture and slow down. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:41 a.m.
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Dew points.

 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Higher dew points have been suppressed to the south. Much cooler and much, much drier air in the Plains/Midwest/Northeast.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:42 a.m.
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Heat Index:


Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.  Will feel hotter from humidity in the southeastern quadrant.
Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:49 a.m.
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Current Surface features:


Strongest cold front of the season has bogged down!!!  Waves along the front dumping rains.


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:51 a.m.
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Latest radar loops.


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

 

South Plains sector loop

 

Central Great Lakes sector loop

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:55 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


Distinctive band of clouds around 3,000 miles long with the front. From the Atlantic Ocean back to Texas.  


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:59 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  

Huge in the S.Plains to Arkansas.


By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 11:59 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 12:01 p.m.
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Soil moisture anomaly:


Too wet in a large area from one of our wettest Septembers!  

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 12:02 p.m.
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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.



https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 12:02 p.m.
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Drought Monitor.

This product is updated every Thursday. This measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months. Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.

Drought in the West. Current heavy rains making another dent in Texas drought.


            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    Drought Monitor for conusDrought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 12:12 p.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Tomorrow:  Current cool surge quickly recedes to Canada and warm slug pushes thru.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

 Cold in Canada plunges south........with the most gusto in the Plains.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days:

 Chilly blast! How deeply can it penetrate south as it encounters stronger resistance?
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product


Day 15:  Warm anomalies far Northwestern Canada.....cool downstream. How far southeast will the real chilly air be?  Friday's models undercut the cold with a strong zonal stream and even try to rebuild the heat ridge in the South/Southeast. Some of Saturday's models stay on that warmer track...great uncertainty.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 12:25 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday. Those solutions are all over the place. The average at the top looks tame but is deceptive because the product uses extreme solutions from both ends. There is a decent chance that either one extreme or the other will happen, as the average shown below, does NOT represent very many members.........just the average of the extremes. 
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 07, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 12:27 p.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3.


Extreme Upper level ridging Alaska to West Coast.  Very chilly air downstream for the eastern half of the US. Also very day which would be good for harvest to pick up.


Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 6:11 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks. Automated on weekends

 As we end September and turn the calendar page to October, very chilly air from Canada pouring into the Northcentral US with an upper level trough...........but at the same time unseasonable warmth in the Southeast as the heat ridge builds back again.

This is the recipe for a boat load of rain! Not good for harvest.


  



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 6:28 p.m.
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These are the individual ensembles from today's 12z GFS solution at the end of week 2. These maps are for the 500 mb level which is around half way up in the atmosphere. 

1. All agree on a very strong/deep upper level trough/low in Canada, probably central Canada.  How far south will the trough extend into the US?  The depth of the trough will be paramount in determining how far the cold penetrates into the US. Near record cold in the N.Rockies/Plains to possibly the Upper Midwest looks possibly for a few days.

2. How much upper level ridging will take place in the Southeast US?  This will be a big contributing factor to how much of the cold is impeded............or allowed to sink south and how much moisture is pumped up from the Gulf of Mexico.  If that upper level ridge strengthens and expands, the forecast could warm up greatly in a big hurry. 

The position and extreme nature of these 2 features is favorable for some very heavy rains...........early season snows in the N.Rockies to possibly even the Dakota's under the coldest scenario.


By metmike - Sept. 22, 2018, 8:50 p.m.
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Latest total (2 week) rains from 18z GFS:

Forecast Hour:  372
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif