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Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Too wet in the Cornbelt for ideal harvesting. Too wet in the Ohio River Valley for early Winter wheat planting.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rain threat
Moving southeast then out the next 2 days..........until the next system in the Upper Midwest late in the week.
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk.
Some strong storms likely...............moving east Wednesday.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Wednesday:
Cool north, very warm south.
Highs days 3-7.
Very warm to hot in the Southeast but chilly to cold air N. Rockies to N. Plains the warmth may win the battle this period in the East. CDD's from heat still in the southeast. But most significant HDD's of the season in the north. This is what rallied natural gas last week and Monday.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Above average Southeast. Well below normal N.Plains.
Huge contrast between cold blue anomalies N.Plains and very warm red anomalies southeast. Residential heating in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest/ blue, Residential cooling in Southeast. This has been bullish for natural gas for the past week+ because of the extreme temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Initially strong cold fronts coming from Canada, moving southeast and stalling/dying (as they encounter a stout and building upper level ridge), that trigger rains.......more rain as they encounter higher moisture and slow down.
Dew points.
70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Higher dew points have pooled north ahead of the next big system.
Much drier air in the Plains/Upper Midwest will is aimed southeast.
Heat Index:
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Will feel hotter from humidity in the southeastern sector.
Current Surface features:
Strong system with its cold front is racing east/southeast across the Midwest/Plains.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Satellite picture.
Distinctive band of clouds from the East Coast, back west. Here comes the new strong system, now gaining strength the Plains/Upper Midwest.
Rains the past 24 hours.
1 long lived wet weather system in the East, a new one coming down from the northwest.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Too wet in a large area from one of our wettest Septembers in history!
The 2nd map gets updated once a week.
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Tuesday. There will be a deep upper level low/trough in Canada with widespread cold extending south into the northern parts of the US. There HAD BEEN a strong upper level ridge in the Southeast US. There is UNIVERSAL agreement for this product that the trough will take over!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 10, 2018 00 UTC
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today/tomorrow: Cool surge spreads across the Plains/Midwest. 
In 5+ days:
Heat ridge builds back in from the southeast and dams up the cold in the N.Plains.
In 10+ days:
Chilly air is released. How quickly will is dive south?
Day 15: Cold anomalies greatest N.Plains/Upper Midwest. How far southeast will they be? The latest guidance is farther southeast and says bye bye to the upper level heat ridge.
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.
Extreme Upper level ridging Alaska to West Coast has been a constant for the past week. The change today is the weakening of the upper level ridge in the Southeast............which lets more cooler air into the Eastern and Southern parts of the country.
This could still be a WET pattern for the Midwest and points south during week 3.
Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
As we turn the calendar page to October, very chilly air from Canada pouring into the Northcentral US with an upper level trough...........but at the same time unseasonable warmth in the Southeast as the heat ridge builds back again. Those 2 features will have a massive battle on weather models in the week 2 period.
Models look cooler with the heat ridge in the southeast weaker to me but there is huge disagreement.
Residential cooling demand and heating demand at the same time.
This is the recipe for widespread wet weather as the heat ridge pumps up moisture to feed the midsection trough. The entire country is green! This will slow down the harvesting.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
Extreme weather days 3-7
Heavy rain and cold.
Check out the last operational 12z European model at day 10..............cold blast hitting the Midwest and aimed at the East!
While the 12z GFS operational model at day 10 has a heat ridge in the east!
gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht |
