KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 342.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 234.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 917.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.7%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
10:00 AM ET. August New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 627K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 394.137M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.057M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.15M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.719M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.122M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.839M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.134M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.564M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2018 (previous 2.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 3.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 3.4%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision, followed by Jerome Powell press briefing
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.00)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, September 27, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 201K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1645000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -55K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1393.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 997.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 468.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +5.3%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 106.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2722B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +86B)
11:00 AM ET. Sept. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 29)
3:00 PM ET. September Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -3.8%)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 28, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 63.6)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.3)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7420.50 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.If December extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2879.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2945.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the reaction lowcrossing at 2879.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2869.74.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-31. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.104 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.258. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.104. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.110. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS:
NovemberNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight after an inventory report showed an increase in supplies and as President Donald Trump reiterated a call for an increase to output among major producers to keep crude prices lower.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 72.78. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.84.
November heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 232.05. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.63. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 207.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 206.35. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 207.56. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.31.
November Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the November-2017 high crossing at 3.085 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.879 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.064. Second resistance is the November-2017 high crossing at 3.085. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.914. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.879.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 93.04 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 93.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.
The December Euro was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 120.14. First support is September's low crossing at 116.12. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3054 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 1.3435 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3586. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0422 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0552. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0422. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0289.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 77.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 77.75. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 77.84. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0900 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0890. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 1215.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is trading range support crossing at 1187.40. Second support is August's low crossing at 1162.70.
December silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.883 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.289 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.883. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July 10th reaction high crossing at 290.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.97. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that the short-term trend has turned sideways to higher. If December resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. First support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.16 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 7-cents at 5.22.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.79 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the late-July high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.40. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the July 31st high crossing at 29.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.00. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 29.39. First support is September's low crossing at 27.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $1.43 at $62.43.
October hogs gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.73. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.83. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.77.
October cattle closed up $0.18 at 112.35.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 113.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.26.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $156.48.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.49.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 21.35 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.88 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!