KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 28, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous+0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 63.6)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.3)
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The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, August's high crossing at 7723.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7420.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7316.50. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2907.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2907.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2871.49.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the declining off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,195.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes the rally off April's low, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 26,769.16. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,420.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,195.65.
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December T-bonds closed up 5/32's at 140-22.
December T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-27. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes closed down 10-points at 118-250.
December T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.089 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.089. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.182. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.110. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
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November crude oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 72.78. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.96.
November heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 225.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 232.05. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 225.02. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43.
November unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 207.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 207.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 207.56. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.71.
November Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.883 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the September-2015 high crossing at 3.215 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.111. 0Second resistance is the September-2015 high crossing at 3.215. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.933. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.883.
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The December Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 93.04 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is July's low crossing at 93.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-August-rally crossing at 92.92.
The December Euro closed sharply lower on Thursday hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.18 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.18. Second support is September's low crossing at 116.13.
The December British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3054 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 1.3070. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3586. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3054. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0418 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0293 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0559. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0292. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0238.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 77.75. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.84. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0900 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0894. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0900. First support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
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October gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and marks a downside breakout of the trading range of the past five-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. If October extends the decline today's decline, August's low crossing at 1162.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1215.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1239.80.First support is today's low crossing at 1180.50. Second support is August's low crossing at 1162.70.
December silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.852 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14.595. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.852. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 270.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.
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December Corn closed up 2-cents at 3.65.
December corn closed higher on Thursday as it extends rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.54 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2.
December wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 5.13.
December wheat closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. If December extends the rebound off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 5.17 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 5.80.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.94 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.94 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
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November soybeans closed up 4 1/4-cents at 8.54 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
December soybean meal closed up $0.70 at 311.60.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed up 33 pts. at 29.12.
December soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the July 31st reaction high crossing at 29.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29.19. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 29.39. First support is September's low crossing at 27.13. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
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October hogs closed down $0.90 at $61.30.
October hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 63.03. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.03. Second support is the September 18th gap crossing at 56.77.
October cattle closed down $0.65 at 113.23.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 113.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.43.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.45 at $157.85.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.68.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 21.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off September's high, the June-2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 9.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December has resumed decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!