KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 1, 2018
9:45 AM ET. September US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 54.7)
10:00 AM ET. August Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.1%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. September ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 61.3)
Prices Idx (previous 72.1)
Employment Idx (previous 58.5)
Inventories (previous 55.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 65.1)
Production Idx (previous 63.3)
11:00 AM ET. September Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.5)
N/A U.S. fiscal year begins
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as investors sorted through a batch of economic data that painted a mixed picture of the economy. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 7723.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7420.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7316.50. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2907.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2907.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2873.66.
The Dow closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,218.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes the rally off April's low, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 26,769.16. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,218.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,806.96.
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December T-bonds closed down 10/32's at 140-12.
December T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 141-04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes closed up 5-points at 118-240.
December T-notes closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.068 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.068. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.173. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.110. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.73. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.91.
November heating oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 225.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 236.53. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 225.49. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43.
November unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 210.74. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.92.
November Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.888 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the September-2015 high crossing at 3.215 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.111. Second resistance is the September-2015 high crossing at 3.215. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.960. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.888.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, September's high crossing at 95.28 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 93.93 would renew the rally off August's high. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is July's low crossing at 93.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-August-rally crossing at 92.92.
The December Euro closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.16 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is September's low crossing at 116.13. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3053 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 1.3070. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3586. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3053. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0295 has opened the door for additional weakness near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. If December extends the decline off September's high, the August 21st gap crossing at 1.0185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0425 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0559. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the August 21st gap crossing at 1.0185. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0132.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 77.75. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.84. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0899 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0893. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0899. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
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October gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, August's low crossing at 1162.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1215.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is today's low crossing at 1180.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 1162.70.
December silver closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.836 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.755. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.836. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 270.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 8 1/4-cents at 3.56 1/2.
December corn closed lower on Friday following this morning’s USDA quarterly stocks report. the USDA estimated Sept. 1st corn supplies at 2.14 billion bushels, 138 million more than its last estimate of old crop carryout on Sept. 12. Today’s larger-than-expected total suggests feed usage during the summer was smaller than expected, helping shrink the amount walking off the farm for the 2017 crop. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2.
December wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 5.10 1/2.
December wheat closed lower on Friday. The USDA raised its estimate of 2018 all-wheat production by 7 million bushels to 1.884 billion. Sept. 1 stocks of 2.379 billion bushels were more than expected and indicated demand was down 8% from last year, in part due to a slow start to exports during the marketing year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rebound off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 6-cents at 5.11 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50 is the next upside target.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50. First support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 5.72 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.96 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.96 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down 10 3/4-cents at 8.44 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Friday following a bearish quarterly grain stocks report. The USDA raised its forecast of ending soybean stocks to 438 million bushels as of Sept. 1, up 43 million from their Sept. 12 report. While part of the increase likely is due to sample error from previous reports, the agency also said the 2017 crop was 19 million bushels larger than reported in January, raising the yield by two-tenths of a bushel per acre to 49.3 bpa nationwide. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends today's decline, September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.62 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.62 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
December soybean meal closed down $3.00 at 308.80.
December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed down 17 pts. at 28.98.
December soybean oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29.19. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 29.39. First support is September's low crossing at 27.13. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
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October hogs closed up $0.88 at $62.18.
October hogs closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 63.03. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.63. Second support is the September 18th gap crossing at 56.77.
October cattle closed up $0.23 at 113.45.
October cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 113.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.48.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.33 at $158.18.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.74.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.97 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 20.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off September's high, the June-2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 9.44 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December has resumed decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!