INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 5, 2018, 7:11 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, February 5, 2018  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 107.10)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 55.9)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 57.3)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 60.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 56.3)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 54.3)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends last week's huge decline. The global stock selloff picked up steam overnight as European stocks opened sharply lower. In Asia, selling was widespread, with Japanese stocks suffering their biggest decline since November 2016. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6599.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6915.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6915.75. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6628.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6599.69.  



The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2719.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2822.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2822.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2878.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2719.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2668.00.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-25. First support is the overnight low crossing at 144-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.  



March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of this winter's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.077 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.230. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.077. First support is the overnight low crossing at 120.180. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.38 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.79.



March heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.00.      



March unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 181.01 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the reaction low crossing at 183.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 181.01. 



March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 2.693 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.033 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.033. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.825. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.693.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.98. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.11. 



The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3959 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4004. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3959.  



The March Swiss Franc were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0538 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0839. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0712. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0538.     



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last Friday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.97 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the overnight low crossing at 80.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.44.



The March Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9086 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9086. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8990.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Last Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.80 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1321.80 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 1354.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1354.30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1321.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1306.90.



March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.146 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the overnight low crossing at 16.510. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. 



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 325.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.62 1/2. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.49 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.  



March wheat gapped down and was lower overnight signaling a possible end to the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.34 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.19 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 3/4-cent at 4.63 1/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/4.     



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6.02 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were lower overnight as they extend the decline off January's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 3/4 would confirm an end to the rally off January's low. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4.



March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 328.00 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 336.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 336.30. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 328.00. Second support is the reaction high crossing at 323.30.



March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.73 at $73.55. 



April hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 70.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is December's low 70.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 70.62. 



April cattle closed up $0.20 at 126.13. 



April cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 127.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 126.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.57. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $1.38 at $150.93. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.43 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

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