INO Morning Market Commentary
0 responses | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Oct. 4, 2018, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, October 4, 2018  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +41.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1703.2K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 872.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 657.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 214K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1661000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +2.4%; previous -0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2768B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +46B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, October 5, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +185K; previous +201K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.9%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.16)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.10)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.37%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -3K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +204K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -53.5B; previous -50.08B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 211.08B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 261.16B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +14.8B; previous +16.64B)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it continues to setback from Monday's high, which appears to have marked a double top with August's high. Despite this week's setback the Dow posted a record high for the 15th time this year as investors were bolstered by healthy economic data. But the market pared earlier gains, with major indexes closing off intra-day highs as bond yields jumped, which could dampen appetite for stocks. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with August's high might have been posted on Monday. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7517.07 are needed to confirm that a double-top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.



The December S&P 500 was was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near.Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2916.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2945.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the reaction lowcrossing at 2916.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2882.08.      



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 142-08. First support is the overnight low crossing at 137-08. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.  



December T-notes was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.274 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.274. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.145. First support is the overnight low crossing at 117.195. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.36.    



November heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 229.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 234.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 229.18. 



November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.33.  



November Henry natural gas was lower overnight and  as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.957 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.261. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.084. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.957.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.45 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 95.78. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.45. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.    



The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is the overnight low crossing at 115.26. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.  



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3127 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extended the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 1.0132 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0370 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.370. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0552. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0137. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0132. 



The December Canadian Dollar gapped down and was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 78.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 79.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.96.



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0894 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0887. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0894. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1207.10 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews last week's decline, August's low crossing at 1167.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1244.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.



December silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.760 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.361 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.760. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620. 



December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July 10th reaction high crossing at 290.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that the intermediate-trend has turned sideways to higher. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.58 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.75 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.  



December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off the late-September high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 5.18 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49. First support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/4 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/4. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 8.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 8.74. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.



December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 319.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 319.70. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20. 



December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June-29 high crossing at 29.98. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.48. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $1.05 at $67.48. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 87% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 68.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 67.55. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 68.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.68.    



October cattle closed down $0.78 at 113.20. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 114.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.68.   

 

October Feeder cattle closed down $1.20 at $157.87. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.96.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.46. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 113.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.   



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off September's high, the June-2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 9.44 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
No replies yet. Be the first!