Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:14 a.m.

Already October 6th. Time is flying!   Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

 The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Rains have picked up..............excessive amounts are possible. The area effected with the highest amounts will shift farther southwest.  Amounts could exceed 6 inches from TX/OK/KS/IA area.

This reads like yesterday's summary..........because it hasn't changed. However, rains forecast will start shifting into rains measured/fallen and the forecast amounts next week will start falling.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Shifts southwest and really goes up.

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

Some stronger storms possible but heavy rains will be the main threat.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:17 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday.

The heat waxes and wanes along the boundary!

Remaining very chilly in the Southeast.



By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:18 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

 Very chilly to cold air N.Plains/N.Rockies.  Very warm to near record warmth south/east of that.............initially.

However, the cool(but moderated) air finally wins the war, mid/late next week.

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Tale of 2 extremely opposite temperature regimes! Above average eastern 1/2(near records). Well below normal N.Plains/Rockies.....near record cold.

A slight shift in the location of the boundary between these extreme air masses will greatly change the temp forecast for areas close to the boundary.

Cooler air shifts MARKEDLY/STRONGLY southeast mid/late next week.

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:23 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Front between very warm and cold air sweeps southeast. By late week, it's all the way down to the Gulf Coast. 

Potent storm along the front early in the week that finally kicks it southeast.

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:24 a.m.
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Dew points.

 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Higher dew points have surged back north. Extremely dry air N.Plains.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:26 a.m.
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Current Surface features:

Warm front, that went back north yesterday is triggering wet weather. Waves along the front adding to it.

Air masses on either side of the front are very contrasting.

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:27 a.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:27 a.m.
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Satellite picture.

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:27 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:28 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"



By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:28 a.m.
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Soil moisture anomaly:

Too wet in a large area from one of our wettest Septembers in history......but it's getting even wetter here in early October!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:28 a.m.
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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:31 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday.  More zonal, west to east flow,  less meridional/extreme.

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 21, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:33 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  Southern edge of cold air in Canada in the northern/central Plains back west! Very warm air to the southeast is moving around.NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product

In 5+ days:

Heat ridge in the Southeast finally giving out. Cold in the N.Plains surges strongly southeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product

In 10+ days: Cold shifts much farther east/southeast but moderated greatly. Warming up out West into the N.Plains/Upper Midwest.
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product

Day 15:  Extreme anomalies completely gone. Mild for mid-October.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:34 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

 Strong upper level ridging Western Canada to Alaska.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) in October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2018, 11:34 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated  this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability