INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 6, 2018, 4:47 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, February 7, 2018  



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 413.4)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.6%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.5)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.4%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 1288.0)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.9%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 418.359M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.776M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 242.06M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.98M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.9M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.94M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 88.1%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.003M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.367M)

                       

3:00 PM ET. December Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +27.95B)



Thursday, February 8, 2018 



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1881.6K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 409.7K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 289.1K)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 233K; previous 230K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1953000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2197B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -99B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



12:00 PM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, February 9, 2018  



10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)



Monday, February 12, 2018 



2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.



N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2019 budget proposal today at the earliest



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Tuesday following another wide swinging volatile trading session. Today's low fell just short of testing December's low of 6250.00 before the index turned higher. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness and volitility is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6857.00 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 6260.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.  



The March S&P 500 posted an upside reversal on Tuesday after falling just short of testing the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2494.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2794.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2794.23. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2878.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2494.90. 



The Dow closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's historic decline but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,058.93. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 23,242.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,889.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 26,529.44. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 23,778.74. Second support is November's low crossing at 23,242.75.    



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 1-10/32's at 145-19.



March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 143-25 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-13. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-19. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 143-25.   



March T-notes closed down 240/32's at 121-075.



March T-notes closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.059 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.059. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.105. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.180. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday pressured by the severe stock-market decline and expectations for further gains in U.S. crude supplies and production dragged prices to multiweek lows. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 62.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the reaction low crossing at 62.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.87.



March heating oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.06 as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 196.03 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 210.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 210.05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. First support is the 25% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 187.86.   



March unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 188.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 188.29. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 181.02. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.10.   



March Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 2.532 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.988 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.988. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.259. First support is January's low crossing at 2.693. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday but not before testing resistance marked by the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.59. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 90.76. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.



The March Euro closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the reaction low crossing at 123.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.27.     



The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3971 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4302 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4302. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3971. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3674.     



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0559 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0829. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0673. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0559.  



The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.83 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 79.48.  



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9103 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.9260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9103. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8994.   



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1307.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 1354.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1321.80. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 1307.40.



March silver closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.083 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is Monday's low crossing at 16.510. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.     



March copper closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 325.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 325.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.      



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up 4 3/4-cents at 3.63 1/2. 



March corn posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Tuesday thereby renewing the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.  



March wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 4.46 3/4. 



March wheat closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.35 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.     



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 4.69. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.43 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.56 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.43 1/4.    



March Minneapolis wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 6.08 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.16 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up 17 1/4-cents at 9.87. 



March soybeans posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Tuesday signaling a possible end to the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI will need to see additional gains before turning neutral to bullish. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.87 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2. 



March soybean meal closed up $5.90 at 332.90. 



March soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, minor support crossing at 323.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 326.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 310.30. 



March soybean oil closed up 64 pts. At 33.14. 



March soybean oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it posted a key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.26 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.26. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $1.90 at $71.43. 



April hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 69.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is December's low 70.97. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 69.70. 



April cattle closed down $0.90 at 124.58. 



April cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.06. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $148.73. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee posted a key reversal up with today's higher close after falling short of testing key support marked by December's low crossing at 11.83. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.40 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. 



March cocoa closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



March sugar closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.63. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.26 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

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