KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, October 12, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1431.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1525.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 435.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous -0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -3.9%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 100.0; previous 100.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 91.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 116.1)
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The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off October's high. This week's decline has been largely driven by a rise in U.S. government bond yields which rose to multiyear highs earlier in the week, indicating higher borrowing costs for corporations and individuals. That has caused a reassessment of equity values. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 6898.35. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7502.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 6925.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 6898.35.
The December S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2899.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2672.69.
The Dow closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 24,721.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,379.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 26,951.81. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 27,000. First support is today's low crossing at 24,899.77. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 24,721.54.
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December T-bonds closed up 1-10/32's at 138-18.
December T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes closed up 165-points at 118-085.
December T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.150 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.150. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
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November crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off October's high. Today's decline was largely pressured by a third-weekly rise in U.S. crude supplies. Additional pressure came from the continued decline in global equity markets, which have raised concerns about the economy and the outlook for energy demand. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.44 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.40 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.40. Second support is September's low crossing at 66.67.
November heating oil closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 224.09.
November unleaded gas closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.68 as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at 191.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 209.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is September's low crossing at 191.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 184.02.
November Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.064 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the aforementioned rally, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.194. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.064.
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The December Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.61. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.92 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.92. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.93. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2963 would renew the decline off September's high. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0308 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0177. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0308. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0106. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082.
The December Canadian Dollar lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 78.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
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December gold closed sharply higher on Thursday and above trading range resistance crossing at 1220.70 as investors move out of stocks and into the safe haven of gold for the time being. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. If December extends today's trading range breakout, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1184.30 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1167.10. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1230.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.57. Second support is August's low crossing at 257.45.
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December Corn closed up 6-cents at 3.68 3/4.
December corn closed higher on Thursday after the USDA lowered its estimates for 2018 U.S. corn production from September estimate of 14.827 billion bushels down to 14.778 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates by analysts expected that 14.859 billion bushels. The USDA lowered its per-acre bushel estimates from 181.8 bushels per acre in September to 180.7 bushels per acre. Harvested acres remained unchanged, at 81.8 million acres. The USDA raised there September 2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks estimate of 1.774 billion bushels up to 1.813 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates had expected ending stocks to come in at 1.913 billion bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.74 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.74 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 1/4. First support is reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2.
December wheat closed down 3 1/4-cents at 5.07 1/4.
December wheat closed lower on Thursday following today's bearish USDA supply-demand report. The USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks, from 935 million bushels in September to 956 million bushels. Pre-report estimates by analysts came in slightly higher, with an average guess of 959 million bushels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 5.13 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 5.89 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction high crossing at 6.02. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
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November soybeans closed up 6 1/2-cents at 8.58 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday following a slightly friendly USDA supply-demand report. The USDA fractionally lowered its 2018 U.S. soybean production estimates from 4.693 billion bushels in September down to 4.690 billion bushels in today’s USDA report. Pre-report production estimates were expected to come in at 4.702 billion bushels. The USDA did raise its per-acre soybean yield estimates from 52.8 bpa in September to 53.1 bpa, which was in line with pre-report estimates of 53.3 bpa. Harvested area estimates dropped by 400,000 acres to 88.3 million acres. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2018/19 were raised from 845 million bushels in September to 885 million bushels. Pre-report estimates were expected to come in at 905 million bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 907 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.74 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $1.30 at 317.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.20 would signal that a double top with September's high was posted on Monday. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 339.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 322.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed up 9 pts. at 29.02.
December soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.64. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
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December hogs closed down $1.53 at $54.42.
December hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.85 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 50.07.
December cattle closed up $0.30 at 116.78.
December cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113.80.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.83 at $156.73.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.53 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 158.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 159.58. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 155.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.53.
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December coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 117.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the June 26th high crossing at 13.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.64 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target.
Thanks very much tallpine!