Great October 12th to you! Don't let another day fly by. Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.
Temperatures in the Midwest have dropped over 30 degrees!
Probability of snow maps:
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Advertised pattern change coming up.
However, a southwest to northeast jet stream, waves in the S.Plains, moisture from Pacific tropical storm Sergio and another reinforcing cold front will result in the last rounds of rain from the S.Plains to the S.Cornbelt..................then, finally it's mostly clear sailing with the new dry pattern.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rain threat
S.Plains, then S.Cornbelt.
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk.
Not very high
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Saturday
Chill has arrived. Temperatures are over 30 deg. F cooler in many places compared to earlier this week!!!!
Highs for days 3-7:
The chilly air will feature temperatures 30+ degrees colder than recent days along the Ohio River.............moderating in the middle of next week.............but still more cold air aimed at the Midwest late next week.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
The cold has taken over..........but warmth hangs on to the far southeast.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing cold front this weekend, and another one next week. Mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. Starts to warm up later next week but stays dry.
Current Dew Points
Extremely dry air in the northern half of the country.
Rains the past 24 hours
6-day rainfall totals through 7 AM CDT on October 10, centered on the Kansas City area An area that could not buy a rain all summer gets 6-12" in a six-day time frame...in October
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "o
Soil moisture anomaly:
Too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in the north!!!
The 2nd map gets updated once a week.
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Friday. Chilly in the Midwest to Northeast with northwest flow. Upper level ridge and warm in the West.......how far east will that get??
Very dry pattern.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 27, 2018 00 UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.
Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada/West Coast shifts east with huge warm up spreading into middle America, especially northern sections of US.
Dry weather in the Midwest to accelerate harvest.
Heating degree days(from cold weather) have replaced cooling degree days(from hot weather) at this time of year.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts:
Very dry pattern!
Warm West, chilly East.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
8 to 14 day forecast below: | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Cold, Plains to Midwest to Northeast..........that has been well known all this week. One last heavy rain event from TX to points northeast early next week.
On Friday's the NWS does a week 3-4 outlook. Here is the one from today:
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental)  |
