For weather effecting crops(harvest) go here:
USDA report out yesterday was bullish.............slight reduction in production for corn and beans:
USDA unexpectedly lowered output estimates for production and yields.
Bean output in the 2018-2019 marketing year that started on Sept. 1 was pegged by the USDA at 4.69 million bushels in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. That’s down from 4.693 billion bushels forecast last month and well below expectations.
Yield is seen lower at 88.3 bushels an acre, down from the month-earlier projection of 88.9 bushels, the USDA said. The government’s ending stockpiles estimate was raised to 885 million bushels from 845 million, but that’s still below analyst estimates.
Corn production forecasts were also lowered by the USDA to 14.778 billion bushels from 14.827 billion a month ago. Yield is now seen at 180.7 bushels an acre, down from 181.3 bushels. The agency’s inventories estimate was raised to 1.813 billion bushels from 1.774 billion a month earlier, but that’s also still below expectations.
Soybeans 10 year charts below.
Low for SX last month was 812.25 but we've bounced back! Current price is $866, 54c off the lows but $1.94 off the $10.60 highs at the end of May. Did we make an early season low?
Harvest pressure and negative seasonals have been offset by wet weather in the forecast much of this month. A pattern change to drier weather will increase harvesting later this month. However, Thursdays cut in production by the USDA might mean all the bearish news is in.
Tariff news is an extreme wild card.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently still close to 10 year lows !!!!!
Charts November contract.
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in???
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are still just below the 10 year lows!
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Corn 10 year charts
CZ made new lows on September 18th at 342.5 but has bounced back to 373.5. Now 29c off the lows but 54c off the late May highs. Wet weather has slowed down the harvest and helped provide price support this month.
The weather will dry out next week and beyond.
Lows are likely in. Thursdays cut in production by the USDA has sealed that fate.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below December contract
1 year below
5 year below
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Export sales from this morning:
Hi Mike
Would you check your bean post of USDA yield
88 bu./acre seems a bit high for bean average
TIA