Weather Dominates, Sending November Natural Gas 10 Cents Higher at Open
9:12 AM
A bullish turn in the latest weather outlooks that is keeping cold weather trapped across major natural gas demand centers for the next couple of weeks sent November natural gas prices up more than 10cents to $3.266just before 9 a.m. ET Monday.
For weather that effects the natural gas market for residential heating demand:
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!
Storage is below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We have a spike up of early season residential heating demand this week into next week.
EIA report from last Thursday +90 bcf
Reported as neutral to the market(I thought is was a tad bearish)
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (10/05/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 10/05/18 | 09/28/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 790 | 763 | 27 | 27 | 881 | -10.3 | 869 | -9.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 871 | 836 | 35 | 35 | 1,019 | -14.5 | 1,004 | -13.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 180 | 177 | 3 | 3 | 223 | -19.3 | 210 | -14.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 262 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 314 | -16.6 | 340 | -22.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 854 | 829 | 25 | 25 | 1,146 | -25.5 | 1,139 | -25.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 191 | 181 | 10 | 10 | 309 | -38.2 | 300 | -36.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 663 | 648 | 15 | 15 | 836 | -20.7 | 840 | -21.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,956 | 2,866 | 90 | 90 | 3,583 | -17.5 | 3,563 | -17 | |||||||||||||||||
These are the temperatures that were used for that report.
These were the temperatures that will be used for this Thursday's EIA report. Take a good look at that map. You don't see anomaly maps with such extremes in magnitude too often.
Natural Gas price charts
We finally broke out above $3!
A lot of volatility with the low storage. Prices have been gyrating up and down with the latest weather forecast............the latest one Sun/Mon is to bring much more cold to the Midwest/East.........lasting into early November.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
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Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligenc:
Natural Gas Winter Prices Rally as Current Cold Snap to Linger Through October
5:45 PM
For the second weekend in a row, a bullish turn in the weather outlooks led to a sharp rally in core winter natural gas contracts to start the week, elevating November natural gas prices on Monday by 8.1 cents to $3.242. Spot gas prices also strengthened as the early-season cold snap drove up demand across much of the United States. The NGI National Spot Gas Avg. rose 17 cents to $3.135.