wow...some life...weather has a better outlook so that's out....rumors of little chinamen maybe....have not heard
Bean futures are showing some signs of going up. This could be why.
1-- good export numbers
2-- rumours china may need beans. They have already said they will need beans. SA can not supply all their needs, but everybody took a wait and see attitude. Well: that may become fact, very soon. We can ship all our domestic production to china. How many?? Depending on when freeze up time comes on the water way and when we can get in the field to harvest. Very few beans harvested in these parts.. Then we need to replace exported beans with your beans for our domestic needs. Just the way it is.
3-- Fact is a lot of beans are not good quality. What do you do with moldy beans. Who wants moldy beans. There are more and more moldy beans as time goes on. Now we are seeing moldy corn. Some moldy beans and corn have no market. Rejected at end user.
4-- Snow on beans is never good. Snow lodged beans do not yield as much as field loss is very high. Some have to stop and clean sieves every round or two. That means some beans just go out the back of the combine. Impossible to keep sieves clean. You just do the best you can.
5-- Wet fields. Some fields have water standing. Soil is saturated. The soil will not support machinery without getting stuck. This slows down harvest or comes to a complete halt. Even if it stops raining, many fields need a lot of time to carry machinery. About the only way some fields can be harvested is if machinery is on tracks. This is really expensive and the supply of tracks is limited. We can't afford tracks on our equipment. We were just about ready to harvest and last nite and today it rains. We have not harvested one acre of beans
6-- anybody who wants to harvest around these parts have beans with high moisture. Too high to store in bins with out special equipment to dry the beans. Most can not dry beans. Beans are a different animal than corn to dry. The beans go the elevator and producer takes a big discount on price. Hard decision to make on harvesting high moisture beans.
7-- There are enough acres/bu. of beans to make a difference in how many make it to the bin/elevator and how many come out with good quality, when they are needed. Both north and south bean fields have problems. In the middle seems to have least amount of problems, but that is not enough for expected demand. The market has started to ration the bean supply.
Great summary Wayne. I agree with that. The bad weather earlier this month has damaged a lot of beans.
Could it show up in the crop report this afternoon?
I don't remember any noteworthy changes in the crop condition/rating in October in the past but maybe this time will be different.
Sure enough the crop rating for beans DID deteriorate.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog4218.txt
Soybeans in good/excellent decreased 2%, poor increased 1%. Harvest, after a quick start, as expected has fallen behind at 38% done vs 53% average.
Corn rating stayed the same. Harvest, which got off the a very fast start, is about average at 39% vs 35% average.
Cotton crop rating plunged as expected. Gd/Ex dropped by a whopping 7%. P/VP increased by 6% with the VP increasing by a very whopping 5%.
Georgia crop that had catastrophic losses from hurricane Michael, went from 59% Gd/Ex to 16%.
P/VP went from 9% to an incredible 54%,
Local elevator manager told us he's just about out of beans due to poor yields of early harvested beans and now poor harvest weather keeping the beans in the field. They're shipping them out faster than they come in. Horribly wide basis has discouraged selling as well.