It's that exciting time again, time to guess the Sun open vs the Fri close
Large drop: drop more than 7 cents
Moderate drop: drop between 3 and 7 cents
Little change: from 3 cent drop to 3 cent rise
Moderate rise: rise between 3 and 7 cents
Large rise: rise more than 7 cents
This place seems like it has been kind of dead to me and so I wouldn't be surprised if there are no replies. But it looks like it is starting to pick up and so hopefully there will be some replies to make this more interesting and maintain incentive for me to keep posting.
Unlike the other times I've guessed at this, my initial take is that it is a tough call. It looks warmer to me than it looked on Fri per the model consensus for late in week 1 to early week 2. However, it looks colder late week 2, where Mike likes to give some emphasis though I'd then have to ask him what about the warmer period before that.
If it looks similar tomorrow, i don't know how the market will act. I suspect it will be an overall warmer full two week period averaged out vs how it looked Fri (even with a colder late week 2), which one would think would favor some drop at the open. However, with NG still very low vs recent weeks and holding up Friday despite warmer overall 2 week forecast trends that day, lots of cold remaining over the next week, the increasing threat for strong cold to return in about 12 days with no strong feel for how long it would last, and with almost the entire winter still ahead, I'm not at all confident it will open down
So, I'll sort of hedge with my at least initial guess being little change. I may update this guess tomorrow.
Forecasts, prognostications, guesses by those who can somewhat interpret a satellite map. Make predictions 14 days out. The thing that all of these have in common, is that they are not fully dependable. If you don't like the weather now, just wait 10 minutes. It will change.
To ask on saturday, what anyone thinks sunday night opening will be, is purely speculation, and subject to overnight change. Relax. Ask again tomorrow. After the football games.
No guesses on the open but it "might be" lower right now.
With regards to our disagreement about the market focusing on the pattern change to receding cold/milder late in the week 2, when it crashed early in the week(you thought that it was ignoring the weather because the short term forecast was colder). The results speak for themselves.
The 6-10/8-14 days outlooks have all gotten milder and milder for 5 days in a row. The market saw this coming early last week and said "so what if we have a few colder days in the next week, what we care about, is what will the price be in a week, when the forecasts have all turned decidedly warmer"
Do you want to be short then or long then? Obviously short and the market will always trade the latest information that tells it what is coming next........that can have the most impact overall. Several colder short term days that might be 5 degrees colder can't have near the impact as a new milder pattern.........which can be 25 degrees warmer/day and go on for more than just several days.
There is also more to it than days 12-13-14-15 morphing towards a new milder pattern........advertised on the GFS a week ago, that seems to have done the best job, if you go by the outlook right now.
The AO was becoming less negative late in week 2 vs the previous days...........a strong indicator that the GFS was on the right track. The MJO phase and so on.
Also, the EIA was expected to be incredibly bearish........+2 bcf in December was the number. Expectations for this and the very bearish supply situation that has evolved all get dialed in.
If we had extremely bullish fundamentals and the EIA was going to be -150 bcf, the market could easily have decided to keep more price risk premium in and focused on the more bullish short term update.
In that case, I think we still would have gone lower but just not the collapse to near life of contract lows from 1.5 years ago. That really surprised me with the amount of cold coming short term and the GFS ensembles not confirming the GFS warmer solution.
But I also was unaware of how bearish the supply situation is.........the market knew.
People like to say that the market is always right. This is true at any instant in time maybe but its actually the opposite. The market is always wrong. If that were not the case, then the price would always stay the same.
The change in price from today to tomorrow is a measure of how wrong the market was during that 24 hour period. In a week, we will find out how wrong the market was for the 7 day period.
The objective of a speculater is to recognize how wrong the market is right now about the value/price that it assigns to the commodity based on the more enlightened view that it sees, tomorrow or a in a week will be.
This can mean being wrong for the moment based on an instantaneous assertation of the market price right now. If you are trading based on the moment, then the market truly is right all the time.
If you are trading for the future........tomorrow, next week(even later in the day for day traders), however, then the assumption is always that the market is wrong right now. ........or it would make no sense to have a position.
Thanks, Mike! You make a good case to back your opinion and put in a good amount of time to do so. That's appreciated.
OK, Mark, it is now after some of the games. Time for final guesses The latest models sort of confirm how it looked yesterday though the overall two week forecast averaged out is actually little changed vs my thinking it was going to be a bit warmer vs how it looked Fri. That is because today's late week 2 looks even colder and possibly moving in a little earlier as well as the earlier warmer changes maybe not being quite as large. With the full 2 weeks looking close to a wash as opposed to warmer, I've decided to guess moderate rise (3-7 cents) based on the market in this case focusing more on late week 2 since the overall 2 weeks is near a wash, prices are relatively low, and based on Fri's small rise despite a sig warming. I'd think Mike would agree but he last said he didn't know and that as of yesterday it "might be lower".
Mike, any updated guess? Anyone else? Mark? Mike the plumber? The guy from Reno?
Well, the Sun open turned out to match my moderate rise guess (about 6 cents up). Too bad I can't make money off of these contests. But they are fun nonetheless. Now if only I had had more competition but MTP, Mark, and Craig never made a guess though Met Mike sort of did.
Nice guess on the open Sunday...........after you changed it from the earlier guess-that would have been wrong(which is exactly what you/we need to do as the weather maps change).
How come I don't get to play by the same rules, when making early comments(before a couple of GFS and other model runs come out)
No guesses on the open but it "might be" lower right now. "
If you want to "sort of" count this as my guess being wrong based on your assessment after the fact, when it was clearly meant not to be a guess, it's ok this time............and I don't mind being wrong as that happens all the time about weather and the ng market.
However, since I made it clear above that it wasn't a guess. I will make sure not to play this game again. Sorry.
Thanks. Like I said, I wish I could make money on these guesses. <g>
I'm sorry. I worded that poorly. Yours, indeed, was not a guess. I just didn't want to just say I was the only guesser and not also acknowledge that you provided a comment even though not an actual guess. I thought that might have been rude as if your comments weren't worthy enough to even note. Be that as it may, I hope you and others decide to guess in the future or I'll have little reason to keep doing them.
I'm trying my best to get this forum talking about commodities (at least NG). Other than Mike, I'm disappointed in the relative quiet so far at least regarding NG. At some point soon, I may stop posting, period. I'm getting little indication that anyone other than you is interested in my posts. I'm here for discussions, not to give speeches. <g> You and I could just email each other for that matter.
Today NG is down sharply on overall less cold 14 day forecasts, especially in mid to late week 2 due to SE US ridging which tries to limit how much cold gets to the east.
Any other opinions about NG? TIA
No big deal Larry. I've actually prefered not to guess on a public forum just before the open if I am considering putting orders in. If I give a few other traders the same bullish or bearish idea, I don't want to have them join in on the bid or offer.
However, as its obvious that nobody reads or posts here anymore, that's probably not going to be the case.
Unfortunately, it sure looks like there are several nails in the forum coffin.
Agree with your assessment of the weather/ng today. I was surprised again at how hard/aggressive the selling was when the week 2 forecast took out the amount of frigid weather and especially how far south it would go with the upper level ridge building in the Southeast.
The GFS ensembles continue to look bone chilling for the Upper Midwest. Would not be surprised to see temps as cold as -25 there to possibly the N/Plains/N.Rockies at the end of week 2...........if it verifies.
Maybe the polar vortex shifting very far south into SE to SC Canada with a enormous temp gradient from the frigid weather north to balmy southeast.
Winter wheat could be threatened if the cold gets some momentum south, although there will be some snow and especially ice with this pattern.
With the strong upper ridge in the southeast pumping up warm humid air out of the Gulf, overriding a shallow layer of very cold that undercuts it, we have the ideal set up for ice storms in week 2.