INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 19, 2018, 7:49 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, October 19, 2018  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (expected 5.3M; previous 5.34M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -0.7%; previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.3)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 264800)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The index appears to be working through an a-b-c correction off last-Thursday's low. If this analysis is correction, Upon the completion of this upside correction off last-Thursday's low,  December could exceed last-Thursday's low later this fall. Currently, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 7406.10 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7406.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7476.33. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80 is the next downside target. If December extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2860.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2800.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2860.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2672.69.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is October's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.  



December T-notes was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 118.145 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and renew the rally off October's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.145. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is October's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline below the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.78, September's low crossing at 66.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.54. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. First support is September's low crossing at 66.67. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.48.    



November heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 226.25 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 235.62 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 235.62. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 226.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43. 



November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 184.02 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 199.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.97. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 188.03. Second support is August's low crossing at 184.02.  



November Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.172 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.172. Second support is the 50% retracement level of September-October-rally crossing at 3.058.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.    



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 114.83. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.  



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher prices are possible near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3054 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2963. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight spiking below July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 1.0042 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0208 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0208. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0283. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0074. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0042. 



The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 78.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 76.48. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.



The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0890 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0899 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1205.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1236.90. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.



December silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965. 



December copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.68 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 296.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.68. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.



December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off the late-September high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.26 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.         



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 5.14 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.34 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.33 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.33 1/2. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat was mostly steady overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15. First support is October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the September-October uptrend line crossing near 8.60 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the aforementioned uptrend line crossing at 8.60 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.  



December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.60. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60. 



December soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.71. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13. 



Comments
By metmike - Oct. 19, 2018, 9:35 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!