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Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
Dry weather continues for the several days for good harvest. Wet weather suppressed to the Gulf Coast.
Here are the latest (cold weather) hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning. The light/bright blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Low Temperatures Thursday Morning |
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The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Dry pattern for the Midwest to accelerate harvest continues for this period. Wet weather way south to the Gulf Coast.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
High Temperatures today and Monday.
Very Chilly Great Lakes/Northeast...mild West to Plains....which spreads east a bit on Monday.
Highs for days 3-7:
Remaining very chilly Midwest/East, (where lots of people live and need heating)mild High Plains to warm West.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Cold anamolies Great Lakes to East, Warm West to mild N.Plains.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge with dry weather in most of the country. Pattern may change at the end of this period.
Current Dew Points
Extraordinarily dry air over most of the country.
Latest radar loop.
Very Quiet.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Rains the past 24 hours
Great Lakes to East(some was snow on the western edge)
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Much too wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Midwest. Just what the harvest doctor ordered!!
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Sunday. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast.
The location of this feature means everything.......and will determine what areas are the wettest and coldest.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 05, 2018 00 UTC
Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks). They show the deep trough somewhere in the US also. Could it back up West? That solution is in play today..........which would warm up the East.
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Strongest cold of the season exits stage east.
In 5+ days:
Coldest air hits the Northeast and is again,escorted out stage Northeast.
In 10+ days: Very chilly Plains, Midwest/East.
Much different today. Much uncertainty! Upper level ridging building in the Southeast? This could warm things up late week 2.
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.
Huge change from recent days. Upper level ridge and warmth in the East/Southeast. Much warmer than yesterday. Upper level trough West. Very wet week 3.
Forgot to update this: LOWER than average residential heating demand!!!
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Updated Thursday:
The NWS 90 day outlook for Dec-Feb is below. Below that is the very mild November outlook.
They are basing this on a weak El Nino developing right now. Odds for mild temperatures vs average are elevated across much of the country. Precip is on the dry side in the north and wet in the south.
This would be bearish for natural gas prices and did put pressure on prices Thursday and Thursday Night.
November outlook below........widespread mild conditions. Wet in the south.