Weather Sunday
12 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:36 a.m.

It's October 21st! Don't let another day go by.   Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Dry weather continues for the several days for good harvest. Wet weather suppressed to the Gulf Coast.

Here are the latest (cold weather) hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning.  The light/bright  blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

                   

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

                                          

             

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below.  Dry pattern for the Midwest to accelerate harvest continues for this period. Wet weather way south to the Gulf Coast.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
Like Reply

High Temperatures today and Monday.


Very Chilly Great Lakes/Northeast...mild West to Plains....which spreads east  a bit on Monday.

   


                  

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:

 
Remaining very chilly  Midwest/East, (where lots of people live and need heating)mild High Plains to warm West.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    


    

 

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
Like Reply

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


 Cold anamolies Great Lakes to East, Warm West to mild N.Plains.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
Like Reply

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge with dry weather in most of the country.  Pattern may change at the end of this period.

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                   


  

Current Dew Points


Extraordinarily dry air over most of the country.  

Current Dew Points

                                    


     

Latest radar loop.

Very Quiet.


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                                    


Rains the past 24 hours

Great Lakes to East(some was snow on the western edge)

                                    


    

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



                                    


            

                

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
Like Reply

Soil moisture anomaly:


Much too wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Midwest. Just what the harvest doctor ordered!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
Like Reply

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!



https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Sunday. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast.

The location of this feature means everything.......and  will determine what areas are the wettest and coldest.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 05, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 10:55 a.m.
Like Reply

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks). They show the deep trough somewhere in the US also. Could it back up West?  That solution is in play today..........which would warm up the East.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 11:03 a.m.
Like Reply

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Strongest cold of the season exits stage east.

NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Coldest air hits the Northeast and is again,escorted out stage Northeast.NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days:  Very chilly Plains, Midwest/East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product



Much different today. Much uncertainty! Upper level ridging building in the Southeast? This could warm things up late week 2.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 11:06 a.m.
Like Reply

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.


Huge change from recent days. Upper level ridge and warmth in the East/Southeast. Much warmer than yesterday. Upper level trough West. Very wet week 3.


Forgot to update this: LOWER than average residential heating demand!!!


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 11:06 a.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


Updated early this afternoon. 




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 11:07 a.m.
Like Reply

Updated Thursday:

The NWS 90 day outlook for Dec-Feb is below. Below that is the very mild November outlook.


They are basing this on a weak El Nino developing right now. Odds for mild temperatures vs average are elevated across much of the country. Precip is on the dry side in the north and wet in the south.

This would be bearish for natural gas prices and did put pressure on prices Thursday and Thursday Night.


/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif
/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif



November outlook below........widespread mild conditions. Wet in the south.

/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif