INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 23, 2018, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, October 23, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -3.5%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 29)

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 33)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, October 24, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 322.1)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 224.0)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.9%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 838.1)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.0%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. August U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 52.9)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 55.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 629K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +3.5%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 416.441M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.49M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.156M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.016M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 132.638M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.827M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 88.8%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.96M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.137M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

Thursday, October 25, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 210K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1640000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 382.5K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 295.6K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 476.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +4.5%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 

                        

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 104.2)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3037B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +81B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. October Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 38)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 13)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 27)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, October 26, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 100.1)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.5)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in late-overnight trading indicating that the day session is likely to come under pressure as the two-day rally in China’s stock market began to unravel, renewing questions about economic growth in the second-largest economy and the implications for the U.S. Investors are also braced for a heavy round of earnings from major companies such as Caterpillar Inc., and McDonald’s. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7461.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7354.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7461.46. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95.



The December S&P 500 was plunged to a new low for the month overnight as it renewed the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2672.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2841.24 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the October 17th reaction high crossing at 2823.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2841.24. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2672.69.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is October's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.  



December T-notes was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 118.145 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and renew the rally off October's low. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.145. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is October's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 66.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.53. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. First support is September's low crossing at 66.67. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.48.    



November heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 226.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 235.47 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 235.47. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 226.87. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43. 



November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 184.02 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 199.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at 186.16. Second support is August's low crossing at 184.02.  



November Henry natural gas was slightly higher in late-overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.058 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.223 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.058. Second support is the 62% retracement level of September-October-rally crossing at 2.984.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-months. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 95.92. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.    



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 114.80. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.  



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher prices are possible near-term. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3142 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2963. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 1.0042 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0172 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0172. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0280. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0069. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0042. 



The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 78.35. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 76.48. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0890 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0898 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0898. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1206.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1239.80. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1225.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1206.20.



December silver was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would renew the rally off September's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965. 



December copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.74 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 296.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.74. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.64 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.



December wheat was higher overnight as it rebounded off trading range support of the past two-months crossing at 5.05 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.31 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.45 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.         



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 1/2-cents at 5.07 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the September-October trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the August-September decline crossing at 5.47 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If December extends last-week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15. First support is October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The recent closes below the September-October uptrend line crossing near 8.63 3/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.47. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.  



December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 310.90. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60. 



December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13. 



Comments
By metmike - Oct. 23, 2018, 10 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks  much tallpine!