Here are the latest hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning.  The light/bright  blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory. Gray is fog. Green is flood watch/warning. Pink is a Winter Storm Warning. Purple is a WW advisory.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

High Temperatures today and Friday.

Very chilly Midwest to Northeast to East Coast.

Highs for days 3-7:

Pattern change at the end of this period that affects where the cold is aimed and where it starts to warm up.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Cold anomalies East.........., Warm West shifting.

Changing in week 2?

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Becoming more active but moisture is lacking for systems in the Midwest, initially. Big East Coast storm, possible Nor'easter this weekend.........with some remnants of hurricane Willa from the Eastern Pacific earlier this week.

Current Dew Points

Extremely dry air in the Great Lakes to Northeast.  

Latest radar loop.

Action in the South!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

Rains in the Plains and surrounding areas.  Also along the Gulf.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Midwest but with some interruptions.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day. Hopefully the gap in the S.Plains will resume data reporting soon.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast......it's farther west today, at least  for this model, which means wetter and possibly warmer in the East. Low confidence in where the cold will be at this time frame.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 09, 2018 00 UTC

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).  Some solutions opt for a deep trough in the Northeast, with the coldest air in that location. The European model is similar to this also, with much more cold in the East. This would also be a drier pattern. 

Low confidence at this time frame!

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Pronounced upper level ridge and warmth along and off the East Coast.  Coldhe East  in both weeks 3 and 4. Cold Rockies/Plains/Midwest  in both weeks 3 and 4, along with wet(snowy northern areas) weather.

Higher residential heating overall than yesterday! Don't take this one to the bank.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon. 

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both will be in negative territory:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/