Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:08 a.m.

It's October 29th.  Just another new day? Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below.  Mostly dry pattern for Plains to Western Cornbelt. Turning very wet this week to the east.

Big rains this week Southern to Eastern Cornbelt.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Starts on Wednesday.


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    


     

Severe Storm Risk.

Far south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Brown is wind, Gray is fog. See the rest at the link below. Pink is a red flag advisory.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

                   

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

                                          

             

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday.


Warm air West moves to the east.

   

               

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

 
Chilly Plains to Midwest.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


Anomalies just below average in the Midsection. Mildest West.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:21 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Especially active and wet from the Eastern Cornbelt to East Coast later this week.  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

 

Current Dew Points

                                    


     

Latest radar loop


Quiet.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                                    


Rains the past 24 hours

In the Northeast.

                                    


    

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Western Midwest overall this week. Getting  MUCH wetter in the East  this week.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! Been pretty dry though the past 14 days.

Texas has been the wet state the past 30 days.



https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Monday.  Similar to the last 2 days. The mean/average of all the members looks pretty zonal or southwest to northeast flow and mild with some troughing over most of the country. Cold air from higher latitudes is cut off.  A lot of the members still have a deeper(southern stream) trough somewhere in the US, favored center to west.  Very few of them have northern stream energy or a cold air source, so it appears unlikely that mid November is going to shift to a much colder temperature regime.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 13, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Overall, there is much less agreement today to me but its still a mild pattern dominated by southern stream systems for most members. 



http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both have been predicted to be close to zero at the end of 2 weeks the past couple of days.....leaning towards milder weather.  However, today we have an enormous spread at the end of the period........increasing uncertainty . 

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


Updated early this afternoon.

The updated forecasts continue to be very wet. A southern stream low/upper level trough in the middle of the country is responsible for that. This feature will keep temps close to normal. 

Outside of that, the lack of a northern stream influence and some modest upper level ridging along both coasts increases the odds for above normal temperatures.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.


Larry tells me that the source of this solution is a day old, so I am working on finding a source with the latest solution. Thank you WxFollower!

Widespread very mild conditions. Record warmth from W.Canada to the Northcentral US.  Cold air is northeast of the Hudson Bay. 

If the strong upper level ridge in the West builds north vs shifts east............thats the only way the frigid weather northeast of the Hudson Bay gets down here.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 1:43 p.m.
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12z Canadian model ensembles at 360 hours.


A lot of disparity, especially in Western Canada, which will be important to US weather downstream.

A deep upper level low in W.Canada could have the opposite effect on our weather vs a strong upper level ridge in that location based on teleconnections. 


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 13, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 1:46 p.m.
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The 12z GFS operational model was still pretty mild, similar to most of the recent runs.........a pattern unfavorable for substantive cold for any length of time:

Here's a snap shot of day 10:

      

gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 1:50 p.m.
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The GFS continues to confirm a very wet pattern coming up, especially along and east of the Mississippi:

Total rains thru 360 hours:

gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 4:11 p.m.
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12z operational European model day 10

A brief cold shot in early week 2 caused the ngz, now the front month to just touch new highs just prior to 2pm when it came out. 

Loading Maps...

By metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 7:16 p.m.
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If I get some time this week, I'll try to create a page for the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its effects downstream on our weather:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf