Stock market correction
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Started by cfdr - Nov. 2, 2018, 12:59 p.m.

I've posted charts here that showed how minor the correction is at this point.  Since, it has corrected somewhat more, but it is still clear the correction is not nearly enough to seriously affect market psychology, IMHO.

So, two possibilities - if, indeed, we still are in a bull market?

First, we get a "normal" four year cycle" corrective low, and the market remains healthy long term.  This low should change the psychology from "buy the dip" to "don't want to have money in there" - if it is any good as a cycle low.  This takes price and time.  Again, if we want this market to be healthy in the longer term, this is what is needed.

Second, after a minor low here, the market goes on to making new highs.  Psychology doesn't change - the market is the place to be.  This could precede a high like 1987 - with the crash following - or it could blow off into a major top.

For years and years now money flow has been going out of this country.  This has been facilitated by the multinationals and the politicians they own.  Wall Street has boomed.  Then, along comes Donald Trump.  Through a combination of tax reductions (especially on money out side of the US coming back home), regulation reductions, and successful trade negotiations - and toughness with China (with some bipartisan support even), investors are increasingly planning to invest more here.  Money flow patterns are possibly what matters most.

So, what could derail this train?  Higher interest rates?  Probably not, as everyone knows that at the first sign of trouble, that can be reversed.  A Democrat controlled House?  Very probably.  These trade deals need to be ratified, don't they?  At least to be considered permanent - and that is what determines investor confidence, isn't it?  Also, Pelosi, Schumer, Waters Schiff - there is nothing they won't do to make sure Donald Trump isn't successful.  Remember Maher saying he wishes the US would go into hard times - just so Trump would lose out.  So, this is a major worry to the market right now, isn't it?  The election is not an insignificant thing.

A note - this may appear to be political, but it is trade related.  A good economy relies on investor confidence - above anything else, IMHO.  After so many years of worthless politicians being not only ok with outflows of capital, but seemingly encouraging those outflows, we finally have an administration that puts America first.  A divided Congress cannot be positive for the economy - given the extent of TDS today.

By TimNew - Nov. 2, 2018, 1:28 p.m.
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These days, more so than ever before,  Markets and politics are hopelessly intertwined. It's not supposed to be that way,  but it is.