Excessive Rain threat

Picks up again early next week southern and eastern Cornbelt..

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Potential outbreak Monday PM to Tuesday PM!!!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

High Temperatures today and Sunday.

Warm in the West, around average Middle and East.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
COLD BLASTS with increasing intensity Northcentral. Warm Southeast until late.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Cold blasts in the Plains/Midwest are resulting in the area and magnitude of blue's increasing there, which will continue  for numerous days ahead!

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Very active.  Big storm early, then major cold air intrusions next week with reinforcing cold fronts ...........high confidence!!!

However, the most significant Winter Storm might be in week 2, a few days beyond this period.

Major Winter Storm on models early in week 2!

From the latest 6z operational GFS solution at the start of day 10, which is early the week after this one.  The Winter storm is farther east today which is giving the Northern and Southern streams a great opporunity to phase/merge their energy. 

Deep surface low, very strong winds, record cold, heavy snow northwest of the path...........where will it track?

Still over a week to go.............the predictions will change.

gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht

Current Dew Points

Fairly dry air, so rains initially won't be especially heavy.

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  Getting even wetter in the next week.

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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! It's going to get even wetter!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday......MUCH colder than the last several days.  Still some warm members but some cold solutions and powerful northern stream influence now that was absent yesterday.   Very high uncertainty  with so much disparity.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 18, 2018 00 UTC

We got wollaped last evening! Flat wind storms and three inches of rain in Chester County pa.

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Like yesterday, still Colder than the Canadian ensembles, now with more members  having northern stream energy aimed at the US.  Ridge-West-Warm, Trough-East-Cold is looking like the best bet right now.

Still significant disagreement and uncertainty.

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 on Saturday, both the AO and NAO forecasts continue to have a big spread, so uncertainty reigns.

The average is close to zero with the latest guidance now taking the AO more in the negative direction which has shifted odds a bit towards an increased chance for cold in, especially the East for late week 2 and beyond.

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

We got wollaped last evening! Flat wind storms and three inches of rain in Chester County pa.

On Friday afternoon's the NWS releases a week 3-4 outlook. The one yesterday was very mild across the country in the 2nd half of November. This has been a steady theme for the longer range models recently............we will see, very low confidence based on colder changes the past 2 days for the week 2 part of the forecast. 

 If this would verify, natural gas prices would plunge lower:

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability (Experimental)

Finally seeing some sun today after 3 days of steady heavy rain here in NE Ohio.  Thanks for the update Mike.  Summer left and slammed the door in our faces. Going to be interesting if we see some warmth the second half of November.  

Hope you didn't have any damage MIke:

  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

Unfiltered Reports (Google Maps) Filtered Reports (Google Maps) (More Info)

YW Jim!

Latest models have been morphing colder for the 2nd half of November with a ridge building in the West and trough in the East. Yes it will be interesting!

Last 12z GFS below: to start week 3. Of course it has low skill at this time frame but it exemplifies the direction that some of the models have been moving in.... re establishing a very cold air connection..........in this case back to the cross polar flow which brought the frigid weather in Canada right now, from Siberia last week. 

I would take the maps below as just one distinct possibility for the 2nd half of November vs earlier this week, what was not on any solutions for any models.             

gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht

Here are the latest, 12z Canadian model solutions. Extreme differences in solutions. A very deep upper level low somewhere with a powerful jet stream and huge temperature contrast that feeds energy into a very stormy pattern..........but the location is very uncertain.  East of that, will be some big warming.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 18, 2018 12 UTC