Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:36 a.m.

Hello November 3rd!  Just another new month? Do something special for somebody this month! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......plan it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Increasing areas of Winter weather across the country the next 10+ days.

The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below.  

Widespread precipitation the next week. Where will it snow?

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Picks up again early next week southern and eastern Cornbelt..

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

Potential outbreak Monday PM to Tuesday PM!!!

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       


Low Temperatures Thursday Morning



By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday.

Warm in the West, around average Middle and East.



By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:48 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

COLD BLASTS with increasing intensity Northcentral. Warm Southeast until late.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:50 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Cold blasts in the Plains/Midwest are resulting in the area and magnitude of blue's increasing there, which will continue  for numerous days ahead!

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Very active.  Big storm early, then major cold air intrusions next week with reinforcing cold fronts ...........high confidence!!!

However, the most significant Winter Storm might be in week 2, a few days beyond this period.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:06 a.m.
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Major Winter Storm on models early in week 2!

From the latest 6z operational GFS solution at the start of day 10, which is early the week after this one.  The Winter storm is farther east today which is giving the Northern and Southern streams a great opporunity to phase/merge their energy. 

Deep surface low, very strong winds, record cold, heavy snow northwest of the path...........where will it track?

Still over a week to go.............the predictions will change.


By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Fairly dry air, so rains initially won't be especially heavy.

Current Dew Points



Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Rains the past 24 hours



You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      


     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  Getting even wetter in the next week.


Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! It's going to get even wetter!

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday......MUCH colder than the last several days.  Still some warm members but some cold solutions and powerful northern stream influence now that was absent yesterday.   Very high uncertainty  with so much disparity.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 18, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By mikempt - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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We got wollaped last evening! Flat wind storms and three inches of rain in Chester County pa.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Like yesterday, still Colder than the Canadian ensembles, now with more members  having northern stream energy aimed at the US.  Ridge-West-Warm, Trough-East-Cold is looking like the best bet right now.

Still significant disagreement and uncertainty.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:29 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 on Saturday, both the AO and NAO forecasts continue to have a big spread, so uncertainty reigns.

The average is close to zero with the latest guidance now taking the AO more in the negative direction which has shifted odds a bit towards an increased chance for cold in, especially the East for late week 2 and beyond.

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:29 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability




By mikempt - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:29 a.m.
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We got wollaped last evening! Flat wind storms and three inches of rain in Chester County pa.

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 11:32 a.m.
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On Friday afternoon's the NWS releases a week 3-4 outlook. The one yesterday was very mild across the country in the 2nd half of November. This has been a steady theme for the longer range models recently............we will see, very low confidence based on colder changes the past 2 days for the week 2 part of the forecast. 

 If this would verify, natural gas prices would plunge lower:

Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability


By Jim_M - Nov. 3, 2018, 1:14 p.m.
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Finally seeing some sun today after 3 days of steady heavy rain here in NE Ohio.  Thanks for the update Mike.  Summer left and slammed the door in our faces. Going to be interesting if we see some warmth the second half of November.  

By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 1:54 p.m.
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Hope you didn't have any damage MIke:

Unfiltered Reports (Google Maps)Filtered Reports (Google Maps) (More Info)
yesterday Reports Graphic


0233UNK 1 SE  UNION TWP                BERKS            PA4021 7577 DOWNED TREE AT INTERSECTION OF PARK ROAD AND CHESTNUT STREET. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.                                                                                 (PHI)
0235 6210 ESE CARD SOUND BRIDG         GMZ042           FL2523 8023 THE CARYSFORT REEF WEATHERFLOW STATION MEASURED A 54 KNOT WIND GUST DURING A RECENT THUNDERSTORM.                                                                        (KEY)
0237UNK 1 NNE WEST POTTSGROVE T        MONTGOMERY       PA4027 7567 DOWNED TREE IN WIRES NEAR INTERSECTION OF MANATAWNY STREET AND SELL ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.                                                                     (PHI)
0239UNK 1 E   POTTSTOWN                MONTGOMERY       PA4025 7562 PHOTOS SHOWING TWO HARDWOOD TREES DOWN IN A RESIDENTIAL AREA.                                                                                                            (PHI)
0239UNK 1 ENE POTTSTOWN                MONTGOMERY       PA4025 7563 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN AT BROOKSIDE COUNTRY CLUB. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.                                                                                           (PHI)
0239UNK    POTTSTOWN                MONTGOMERY       PA4025 7564 A ROOF WAS TORN OFF AT THE YORKSHIRE APARTMENTS IN POTTSTOWN.                                                                                                            (PHI)
0242UNK 1 ESE LOWER POTTSGROVE         MONTGOMERY       PA4025 7557 DOWNED TREE SEVERELY DAMAGED A HOME ON WOODMERE ROAD.                                                                                                                    (PHI)
0251UNK    HICKORY                  HARFORD          MD3958 7634 TREES AND WIRES DOWN.                                                                                                                                                    (LWX)
0257UNK    RICHLANDTOWN             BUCKS            PA4047 7532 FEW TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.                                                                                                                   (PHI)
0259UNK    CHARLESTOWN TWP          CHESTER          PA4009 7556 WIRES DOWN NEAR VALLEY HILL ROAD AND VALLEY BEECH LANE.                                                                                                                  (PHI)
0309UNK    EAST WHITELAND TWP       CHESTER          PA4004 7556 8 RESIDENCES SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM DOWNED TREES.                                                                                                                         (PHI)
0313UNK    MALVERN                  CHESTER          PA4004 7552 SEVERAL TREES AND WIRES DOWN NEAR THE MALVERN SEPTA STATION. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.                                                                                  (PHI)
0315UNK    WILLISTOWN TWP           CHESTER          PA4000 7550 A GROUP HOME SUSTAINED DAMAGE BY DOWNED TREES.                                                                                                                           (PHI)
By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 2:08 p.m.
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YW Jim!

Latest models have been morphing colder for the 2nd half of November with a ridge building in the West and trough in the East. Yes it will be interesting!

Last 12z GFS below: to start week 3. Of course it has low skill at this time frame but it exemplifies the direction that some of the models have been moving in.... re establishing a very cold air this case back to the cross polar flow which brought the frigid weather in Canada right now, from Siberia last week. 

I would take the maps below as just one distinct possibility for the 2nd half of November vs earlier this week, what was not on any solutions for any models.             


By metmike - Nov. 3, 2018, 2:17 p.m.
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Here are the latest, 12z Canadian model solutions. Extreme differences in solutions. A very deep upper level low somewhere with a powerful jet stream and huge temperature contrast that feeds energy into a very stormy pattern..........but the location is very uncertain.  East of that, will be some big warming.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 18, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast