Excessive Rain threat

Small area early this week, Ohio Valley Monday, then Northeast Tuesday.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Potential outbreak Monday PM to Tuesday PM!!!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

High Temperatures today and Monday.

Warm in the West, around average Middle and East but warming a bit on Monday ahead of the first big surge of cold coming NorthCentral this week.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
COLD BLASTS with increasing intensity Northcentral early that spread southeast. Warm Southeast until late.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Cold blasts in the Plains/Midwest resulting in the area and magnitude of blue's increasing there(now VERY impressive), peaking in intensity around this period to just beyond it!

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Major cold air intrusions next week with reinforcing cold fronts ...........high confidence!!!

Cold Arctic High pressure settles in.

However, the most significant Winter Storm that looked possible early in week 2 is no longer evolving with the same gusto on maps from the previous 2 days. Stay tuned.

"Major Winter Storm on models early in week2!"

That was the title of yesterdays page addressing this period.

On today's latest 6Z GFS operational model, it looks like a nothing burger, stay tuned for the latest: 

gfs_namer_192_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_192_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_192_850_temp_ht

Current Dew Points

Look at the green, higher moisture air surging north ahead of the approaching cold front.

Latest radar loop

Well defined area of showers.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  Getting even wetter in the next week, especially east and south.

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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! It's going to get even wetter, east and south!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Sunday......Extremely high uncertainty.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 19, 2018 00 UTC

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Like yesterday, still slightly Colder than the Canadian ensembles, now with more members  having northern stream energy aimed at the US.  Ridge-West-Warm, Trough-East-Cold is looking like the best bet right now.

Still significant disagreement and uncertainty.

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 on Saturday, both the AO and NAO forecasts continue to have a big spread, so uncertainty reigns. With the AO, the spread and uncertainty is off the charts. 

The average is close to zero  but either extreme on the AO is as least as likely as the average. 

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability