Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:38 a.m.

It's  November 5th!  Just another day? Do something special for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and extreme cold.

The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.  

Heavier amounts mainly eastern third of the country. Where will it snow?

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

Potential outbreak Monday PM to Tuesday!!

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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ere are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning



By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday.

Warm to mild in much of the country............not for long.



By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:48 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

COLD BLASTS with increasing intensity Northcentral early that spread southeast.........eventually reaching the Southeast late.

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Cold blasts in the Plains/Midwest(that spread southeast) resulting in the area and magnitude of blue's increasing there(now VERY impressive), peaking in intensity around this period to just beyond it!

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 10:57 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Major cold air intrusions this week with reinforcing cold fronts ...........high confidence!!!

Cold Arctic High pressure settles in.

A significant Winter Storm that looked possible early in week 2 from last Friday is no longer evolving........However, possible Nor'easter early week 2?

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 11 a.m.
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"Major Winter Storm on models early in week 2!"

That was the title of Saturday page addressing this period.

On today's latest 6Z GFS operational model, the potential is for a Nor'easter. Stay tuned for the latest: 


By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 11:02 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Green, higher moisture air available to feed potential severe storms late Mon and Tuesday.

Current Dew Points



Latest radar loop

Well defined area of showers.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Rains the past 24 hours



You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      


     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  Getting wetter in the next week in the east and south.


Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! It's going to get even wetter, east and south!

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 11:06 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Monday......much more agreement today vs previous days.  Looking VERY MILD.

Zonal, west to east flow and cold air masses trapped in Canada, far to the north.....on this model.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 20, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 11:10 a.m.
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Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Still Colder than the Canadian ensembles, still some members  having northern stream energy aimed at the US.  Ridge-West-Warm, Trough-East-Cold is still very possible.

Still significant disagreement and uncertainty for this model.

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 on Saturday, both the AO and NAO forecasts, still have alot of spread(a bit less than yesterday).   The AO is close to zero but the NAO is leaning positive now and favors warmer weather later in week 2 and beyond. 

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability