Election
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Started by WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:19 p.m.

Election trends in Senate and more importantly in House are trending GOP overall based on betting odds and equity futures.


Per betting odds site, House had been favored 2 to 1 to go Dem. It is now 50/50. Equity futures up sharply on this.

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Re: Election
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By joj - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:45 p.m.
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I agree things are trending GOP, but the sites I've perused show Dems still 55% to take the house with a slight majority.  Market has a bid as you pointed out.  When Carville came on MSNBC and said he was disappointed that there would not be a Democratic wave tonight I bought S&Ps and scalped 10 points in short order.  Sitting at the 2774 area which is a 50% retracement on the big down move.  Probably will go through that higher.

By cutworm - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:48 p.m.
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Nice trade !

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:49 p.m.
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Interesting, the NYT has it 95% in favor of the opposite:


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html


Live Forecast: Who Will Win the House?

Chance of House majority

>95%Dem.

Chance of winning

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:55 p.m.
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CNN says the same thing:

The Forecast: The House is still leaning Democratic

From CNN's Harry Enten

The House is still leaning Democratic, but it is looking better for Democrats at this hour. 

The bottom line: They are winning where they need to.

Re: Election
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By WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:59 p.m.
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Mike, now my site has suddenly gone 90% Dems chance for House!

By Lacey - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:16 p.m.
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Surprise, surprise.

By Lacey - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:17 p.m.
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Surprise, surprise the NYT and CNN are leading Dems.

Re: Election
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By WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:19 p.m.
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John King on CNN in still another election impress me about his ability to analyze election returns at the county level! Nobody is better imo.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:41 p.m.
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Yes Larry,

I have watched him on election night for years. He is the absolute best for amazing analysis. The station may be full of doo doo bias but his analytical ability and graphics  and timely updates blow everyone else away. 

By joj - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:42 p.m.
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2774 !!!

Re: Election
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By WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:52 p.m.
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House to Dems, GOP keep Senate. Both expected for weeks though House became in doubt just 2-3 hours ago. Still watching individual races including governors and to see how big the margins are in each US leg. chamber. A real mixed bag tonight. GOP doing well in Senate and Dems doing well in House. 

By joj - Nov. 6, 2018, 11:11 p.m.
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I was expecting him to be declaring victory ala "landslide win in 2016"

But nothing so far....