Election trends in Senate and more importantly in House are trending GOP overall based on betting odds and equity futures.
Per betting odds site, House had been favored 2 to 1 to go Dem. It is now 50/50. Equity futures up sharply on this.
I agree things are trending GOP, but the sites I've perused show Dems still 55% to take the house with a slight majority. Market has a bid as you pointed out. When Carville came on MSNBC and said he was disappointed that there would not be a Democratic wave tonight I bought S&Ps and scalped 10 points in short order. Sitting at the 2774 area which is a 50% retracement on the big down move. Probably will go through that higher.
Interesting, the NYT has it 95% in favor of the opposite:
Chance of winning
CNN says the same thing:
The House is still leaning Democratic, but it is looking better for Democrats at this hour.
The bottom line: They are winning where they need to.
Mike, now my site has suddenly gone 90% Dems chance for House!
Surprise, surprise the NYT and CNN are leading Dems.
John King on CNN in still another election impress me about his ability to analyze election returns at the county level! Nobody is better imo.
I have watched him on election night for years. He is the absolute best for amazing analysis. The station may be full of doo doo bias but his analytical ability and graphics and timely updates blow everyone else away.
House to Dems, GOP keep Senate. Both expected for weeks though House became in doubt just 2-3 hours ago. Still watching individual races including governors and to see how big the margins are in each US leg. chamber. A real mixed bag tonight. GOP doing well in Senate and Dems doing well in House.