Beans
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Started by Jim_M - Nov. 8, 2018, 2:07 p.m.

Bean ES keeps climbing, not only in the US but world stocks as well.  Yet the market at best flinched.  Putting a lot of faith in resumption of trade with China.  


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Re: Beans
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By silverspiker - Nov. 8, 2018, 2:55 p.m.
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ty

Re: Beans
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By frey_1999 - Nov. 8, 2018, 6 p.m.
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If not for the trade war effect on beans the Market would have been up 12 corn and 25 beans with the large drop in production.


By the final  est. In Jan yields  may be no more than last year.

Re: Re: Beans
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By mcfarm - Nov. 8, 2018, 6:11 p.m.
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try some common sense frey. "If not for the trade war" you say...well then beans should be around 10 bucks you say...but then how could of beans been up 25 cents if its already reached its water level at 10....cannot have it both ways guys, no matter how hard you try

By frey_1999 - Nov. 8, 2018, 7:04 p.m.
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Your logic is amazing.


if we did not have an ongoing trade war your saying that beans would be $10.00  yet for the last 9 months you have preached its not about the trade war!!   go figure


but even if beans were trading $10.00 todays report would have been enough of a shocker to add  >12 and >25 to corn and beans.


go back and find the last time USDA cut yield on the Novy report let alone by a bushel in beans and 1.5 in corn  cutting in NOv. is not the norm.   and will lead to more cuts the market understands this but is muffled by the total lack of demand in beans which it believes will lead to massive acres switch.


THE MARKET DOES NOT FEAR DEMAND  

By mcfarm - Nov. 9, 2018, 6:57 a.m.
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I don't believe I have never said beans could or should be anything...that is up to the market not me. I have and will say you guys trying to blame this entire sell off on tariffs are letting your TDS get in you minds so deep you quit thinking...your latest post just clarifies this again


My logic in this tariff thing is much like the global warning debate. Has it warmed, of course, is man and his evil ways totally responsible, of course not, is it natural turn of events and will happen again just like cooling no matter what man does, of course it 

will happen again

Re: Beans
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By cfdr - Nov. 9, 2018, 8:08 a.m.
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Simply looking at this chart, it is glaringly obvious why prices are so cheap and basis so weak.

Are the tariffs having some effect?  Of course.  Are they the driving factor?  Just look at the chart.  Drawing a linear regression line through years 1998-2013 looks to project more than one billion bushels less than we raised this year.

How can we not have a problem?



Re: Re: Beans
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By frey_1999 - Nov. 9, 2018, 8:53 a.m.
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We increased production by 189 mb but ending stocks increased by over 500 mb and the trump supporters  stand their screaming it s the farmers fault he is over producing.


At the current rate of yield  reductions this crop may be smaller than last years.

But with the rate of exports ending stocks will grow to 1.1 billion bushels.

And the trump supporters will still be standing there shaking their fists screaming it the farmers fault.

By Jim_M - Nov. 9, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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You can't leave SA out of this conversation.  The production increase out of SA and Argentina has been even more impressive.  The world only needs so many beans.  Looking at this chart, Brazil alone has almost quadrupled it's production in the last 20 years.  

Re: Beans
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By cliff-e - Nov. 10, 2018, 9:08 a.m.
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Don the Con's tariff talk has damaged US agriculture and handed the business to SA.

http://dimsums.blogspot.com/2018/10/brazil-overtakes-us-as-top-ag-import.html?m=1

Re: Re: Beans
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By Jim_M - Nov. 12, 2018, 2:12 p.m.
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Broaden your scope.  The Administrations have been handing the Chinese 100's of Billions (if not Trillions) in lost  trade to China for decades now.  A couple of years of lost bean sales is a drop in the proverbial bucket.  

By cfdr - Nov. 12, 2018, 2:30 p.m.
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Broaden your scope.  The Administrations have been handing the Chinese 100's of Billions (if not Trillions) in lost  trade to China for decades now.  A couple of years of lost bean sales is a drop in the proverbial bucket. 

Jim, I appreciate the common sense you bring to this discussion.

Once again - where do people think the money came from to allow China to compete with us (in agriculture) in South America and now Africa?

Where do people think the money came from to allow China to compete with us in technology?

Where . . . in manufacturing?

We allowed them open access to our markets and didn't object when they kept us out of their markets.  We had a president who said something to the effect of waving a magic wand - when it came to keeping jobs.

What should be obvious is that China does not have our best interests in mind when they make decisions.  They want to dominate us.  China has a long history of being important, and in recent times, they have been walked on by other powers - even Russia.  They want to be back to being powerful and respected again.  It's very understandable.  But, we need to ask if that will be a good thing for us.  The very least we should ask for now is for trade to be more fair.

Or, we just simply give up and accept that soon we will be subservient to them. 

By frey_1999 - Nov. 12, 2018, 2:52 p.m.
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You need to sacrifice  in order to Win this trade war.


I will ask you and any other trumper 

What will a trade war win look like , in other words what will be accomplished when we win.

Because as of right now trump and his trade war policy are getting their collective heads handed to them