Weather Friday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 9:54 a.m.

Happy November 16th to you!  Just another day? Do something nice for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and a great deal of  cold.  


Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes


Snowfall forecast the next 3 days:

     

 << Previous


Forecast Hour:  084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif

   

nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif




Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


                        

             

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.


Widespread cold receding today some areas, new blast northcentral.

   

               

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Extreme cold Upper Midwest to Great Lakes to Northeast initially.   Receding cold next week.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Coldest anomalies Northeast.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


 Quiet with Arctic High Pressure next week and moderation mid/late week.

  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:04 a.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:05 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

 

Dry Arctic air across the country.

Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. To provide you with the progression of the past 3 days, read below.

From Saturday: Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada.

Will it make is farther south?


From Sunday: Whoa nelly.  A few members bring incredibly cold air across Canada into the US.........but the Canadian ensembles is much colder than all the other models because of this. Giant disparity in solutions of individual members and with different models(Euro ensembles are MUCH milder than this)


From Monday: Cross polar flow along with a southward extension of a  deep polar vortex, that creates a strongly negative AO, in tandem with a -NAO makes these solutions look potentially very cold.........but still great uncertainty.


From Tuesday: Looks similar to Monday..........COLD!

From Wednesday/yesterday: Still extremely cold. Cross Polar flow and far southward extention of the Polar Vortex. This model has led the way in advertising the major pattern change for this period(before the other models)

Thursday: Not nearly as cold...........but still pretty cold.


Friday: Huge disparity but colder again. Several members take the polar vortex very far south with an extreme solution with an extreme negative Arctic Oscillation.


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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 01, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles


Big split. Some with northern stream dominance, like the Canadian model some with more southern stream.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge 1 day change!!! 

Monday: the change continues in the same cold direction.

Both the AO and NAO are MUCH more negative and with a MUCH greater spread. A few members are extreme.

They strongly favor very cold air moving into the US. 

Tuesday's update: Following the same path of the previous 2 days. However, there is a tremendous spread in this indices at 2 weeks. That means uncertainty.

Wednesday: Extremely negative and cold!

Thursday: Not as extremely negative but still  a great deal of spread

Friday: WOW on the -AO. Some members have it the most extreme I've ever seen it but a huge disparity. If the extreme members are correct, the polar vortex will shift bodily, close to the US. NAO is also strongly negative. 

This suggests extreme cold and that the coldest model solutions might have the right idea...........but some models have been mild for this period too. Massive uncertainty. 

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:18 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


 Updated early this afternoon. I'm getting colder than the NWS again.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By Jim_M - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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I imagine it wouldn't be too hard to be cooler than the NWS, their forecast has warmed up quite a bit.  With a withdrawal coming next week and then potential injections again the next 2 weeks, that should keep the volatility high.  

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Agree Jim


Here is the big risk, coming from a potentially very negative AO.


This anomaly map displays what I've been talking about with regards to the extremely

negative AO. The one below is the most recent update from the GFS ensembles.


Extremely high heights across the high latitudes compared to average and lower heights in the middle latitudes.  Classic -AO, when the blues increase in the mid latitudes. 

Todays AO was off the charts negative for some of the forecasts! This would bring the polar vortex to, potentially a position similar to January 2014. 



NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By Jim_M - Nov. 16, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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If that were to come to fruition, some of those predictions of NG in the mid teens would probably come true.  

By metmike - Nov. 16, 2018, 12:10 p.m.
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I should note that this is not my forecast, just the extreme cold risk with this particular pattern. 

The models will likely look quite a bit different early next week.