KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 316.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 220.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 824.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.3%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 215K; previous 216K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1676000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +46K)
8:30 AM ET. October Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -2.2%; previous +0.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 98.3; previous 98.6)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 89.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.1)
10:00 AM ET. October Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.0%; previous +0.5%)
Leading Index (previous 111.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. October Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.19M; previous 5.15M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous -3.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.4)
Median Price (USD) (previous 258100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 442.057M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +10.27M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.61M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.411M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.268M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.589M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.387M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.001M)
12:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3247B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +39B)
Thursday, November 22, 2018
N/A U.S: Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets closed
N/A Marianas: Thanksgiving Day
Friday, November 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 893.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 470.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 438.3K)
9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.7)
9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.9)
1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early after Thanksgiving
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, February's low crossing at 6385.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6884.48 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6884.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7195.61. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6449.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 6385.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2721.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2721.14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2802.98. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2633.00. Second support isApril's low crossing at 2583.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-17 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 140-09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-17. Second resistance is November's low crossing at 136-24.
December T-notes was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.151 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.151. Second support is November's low crossing at 117.225.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil closed higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.83 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 57.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 52.77. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96.
January heating oil was higher overnight as it bounced off the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 197.29. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 185.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.38 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 207.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 197.29. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 185.86.
January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 140.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 155.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.79. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 146.24. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 140.90.
January Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The mid-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.796 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.222. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.796.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 95.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.51.
The December Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.45. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.53. First support is November's low crossing at 112.46. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.
The December British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 1.2722 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 1.3297 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3198. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0002 would confirm that the rally off November's low has ended. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0156. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9902. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, June's low crossing at 75.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.00. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.69. First support is the overnight low crossing at 75.11. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.00.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0890 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0890. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0901. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1222.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1186.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1246.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1196.60. Second support is October's low crossing at 1186.00.
December silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.407 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 13.860. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620.
December copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 287.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.26 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 287.10. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is October's low crossing at 264.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends its late-fall trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Closes below trading range support crossing at 3.60 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 8th reaction high crossing at 3.79. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 5.27 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.20 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 4.73.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.08. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.69 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4 is the next upside target. If First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.90. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 5.65 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.71 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 9.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. First support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight while extending a two and a half month old trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 302.00. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 27.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.46 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.46. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.17. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
Thanks tallpine!