Weather Thanksgiving
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Started by metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:35 a.m.

Happy Thanksgiving to you!  Just another day? Pig out on food and enjoy your family today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be a big Winter Storm coming up and another big shot of cold behind it next week.


Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes



Snowfall forecast the next 3 days: Winter storm in the Plains/Midwest.




Forecast Hour:  084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif

   

nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif




Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


                        

             

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.


Mild in many places.......especially West to Central and Southern Plains to Southeast. Record cold Northeast.


   

               

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

The next  blast of cold aimed at the NorthCentral  US will be dropping southeast(Southeast US starts next week mild).


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Cold blue anomalies are back in the Midsection but not as extreme as earlier this month.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Biiiiiiiig WINTER storm  this weekend to next Monday.  Next big blast of cold is dragged down behind it.

  Patternhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.


Picks up Friday as rain, then Winter storm Sunday/Monday. Not as wet for cotton as previous forecasts.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                                    


            Current Dew Points

 

 New surge of very dry Arctic air in the Plains/Midwest right now.

Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a bit longer(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day. Big data lacking blob in S.Plains will hopefully be fixed soon.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday.

Big disparity. Some are very cold with northern stream a major player. Some have mild/zonal flow that cuts off the cold. 

Will the cold in Canada, that's been depleted because its drained south, be replenished?


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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 07, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:56 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles


A great deal of uncertainty at this time frame but still leaning strongly to cold for this model!

Upper level trough somewhere.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 10:59 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge disparity and change from recent solutions.

The  AO was in uncharted low territory for awhile last week.........with extreme cold indicated but now is shown to just temporarily spike down(not quite as extreme) and bouncing back towards zero but still negative and decent cold indicator.

The NAO was also strongly negative last week and is showing the same tendency, a spike lower but bouncing back towards zero...........still  remaining a bit negative at the end of week 2, suggesting cold.

The day to day changes are big enough to generate low confidence.



Monday: 2nd day in a row that shows the same thing. Negative AO and NAO are recovering at the end of the period.........reducing the threat of extreme cold for early December. 

Tuesday: The trend towards a reduction in the magnitude of the negative AO and NAO continues. It morphs towards zero at the end of the period, lessening the risks for extreme cold in early December. 

Wednesday: AO and NAO diving into solid negatives then rebounding. AO STAYS negative, more so then Tuesday. NAO keeps rebounding to near zero at the end of 2 weeks. Huge spread and uncertainty.

Thursday: AO and NAO show the dive to negative being shorter lived than previous bouncing back closer to, if not all the way back to zero at the end of 2 weeks. This reduces cold risks in December. 


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 11 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


 Updated early this afternoon.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 11:01 a.m.
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Previous discussion:


                Re: Weather Tuesday            

                                   

                By WxFollower - Nov. 20, 2018, 4:34 p.m.            

            

Mike,

 Have you noticed that the average anomaly for US highs has been much colder than that for the lows, especially in recent weeks? Is that related to global warming and the very warm oceans? I know the SW Atlantic just off the SE US remains quite warm anomalywise though it is starting to cool some.

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                By metmike - Nov. 20, 2018, 7:44 p.m.            

            


Yes Larry, great observation!

Actually this has been going on  for 2 decades.

It's been causing highs to be lower and lows to be higher. This has done several things.

It's decreased the diurnal temperature spread.

It's causing record warm minimums to exceed record warm maximums.

Related to that, its reducing record warm maximums vs where they would be and reducing record cold minimums.

It's been warming the coldest places on the planet the most, especially during the coldest times of year.

It's reduced extreme highs in the Summer vs where they would be without this going on.


I think the increase in H2O in the air can be part of it but the increase in CO2,  causing the "greenhouse" effect  could explain most of it by itself. This effect would be greatest in the coldest places and at night(Polar latitudes have night time conditions all Winter long), when long wave radiation dominates the heating signal......CO2 plays a key role with the long wave radiation...........more of it, means more heat stays in the atmosphere. 

So higher minimums.


 During the day solar, short wave radiation dominates the heating signal, so greenhouse gas warming from more  weaker, long wave radiation is not as important. So not as many higher maximums because the intensity of the sun(TSI) has not changed much.

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                By metmike - Nov. 20, 2018, 7:51 p.m.            

           This was a good article on it:


http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/record-warm-nighttime-temperatures-a-closer-look


But looking at these four types of records, it appears that nights have warmed even more: the average month recorded 10 percent more record high minimum temperatures than record high maximums. The record low temperatures tell an even more compelling story: it was much more likely for the daytime temperature to be colder than average than it was for the nighttime ones. There were only 1,235 record low minimum temperatures set per month, while there were 1,697 record low maximum temperatures set per month. By this measure, a record cold day was 40 percent more likely than a record cold night.

Interestingly, when I looked at different months of the year, I found that the nighttime warming was even greater during the summer. During June, July and August, record high minimum temperatures outnumbered record low minimum temperatures by about three to one.


More cloudiness could also explain part of it, as clouds trap heat from escaping at night and block heat from getting in during the day. 

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                     By metmike - Nov. 21, 2018, 9:50 p.m.            

           

See comments in the natural gas thread about the polar vortex and this being the coldest Thanksgiving in the last century in the East/Northeast:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/17783/


By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 12:13 p.m.
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The last 12z GFS operational model is very mild and completely changes the pattern......cold air from Canada cut off. Above temps, especially southeast.

      

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - Nov. 22, 2018, 12:16 p.m.
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But the 12z Canadian model ensembles are having none of that. 

They are still cold, at least over half of them are cold to very cold.

Some do actually build an upper level ridge in the Southeast, a minority and are milder.

     

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) a





By WxFollower - Nov. 22, 2018, 4:39 p.m.
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11-15: Interesting disagreement. The last several GFS operational runs have been on the mild side with no +PNA whereas the last few ensemble means of the 3 major models have been chilly with a +PNA. Keep in mind that the GFS operational has a pretty stout warm bias on average. Is that the main reason they have been warmer in the 11-15 day period? I don’t know but even the ensemble runs have tended to be too warm in recent weeks (they have been cooling off as the period gets closer) and also the 11-15 day operational is of pretty low skill in general.