Happy November 29th. Just another day? Do something nice for somebody. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.
Warming up in many places with starting Friday. More cold and even snow in other places.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Settling down.
Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Snowfall forecast for the next 3 days below:
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Warming up most places!
Highs for days 3-7:
Warming up south and east. New blast of cold Rockies/NorthCentral this weekend that shifts southeast next week. Colder for next week in today's forecast(warmer after that, beyond day 10)
Increasing temperature gradient.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Warm red anomalies in the East will fade fast as cold from the West blasts eastward.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Big storm this weekend, then sharply colder next week behind the storm with Canadian high pressure.
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.
New storm Friday. Widespread precip!
Snow gets back into the picture as the storm tracks north into the colder air.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Now from this storm.
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif
Current Dew Points
Bone dry air retreating, green moisture getting transported north with south winds.
Latest radar loop
|Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Been pretty dry the last few weeks.............that will change late this week.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday:
From Friday: Big disparity still. Some are very cold with northern stream a major player. Along with that, is the risk that part of the polar vortex will take another excursion unusually far south. This would replenish the frigid weather reservoir to Canada, that gets depleted leading up to this period.
Some have mild/zonal flow that cuts off the cold.
Saturday: Big change, actually huge change. The vast majority now are milder. Very few show the threat for the polar vortex to shift south
Sunday: The average, deceptively looks zonal. Numerous members look colder than yesterday, with some now back to featuring the polar vortex shifting south again. However, the disparity is huge. I am very low confidence for this time frame. It could be mild or morph back to extreme cold.
Monday: This particular model looks pretty mild late in week 2.
Tuesday: This model and almost all the solutions are looking VERY mild
Wednesday: Several solutions now plunge the polar vortex and northern stream south. Intense cold risks elevated vs the past few days. No strong agreement.
Thursday: Big disagreement. Most mild some cold.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 14, 2018 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
Friday: A great deal of uncertainty at this time frame but still leaning strongly to cold for this model! Threat for polar vortex to start moving south again is elevated today.
Upper level trough somewhere.
Saturday: This model hasn't changed that much since Friday(but less threat for polar vortex shifting south). Looks like alot of widespread precip with an upper level trough and coldest temps west(possibly milder east of the Upper trough)
Sunday: This model has done best for week 2 recently. It looks even a bit colder in the East now. It also looks MUCH drier, with the northern stream dominating and southern stream out of the picture.
Canada's supply of frigid air will be replenished so cold fronts could pack some punch.
Monday: This model continues to be the coldest solution. A ridge west(mild)/trough east(cold) couplet can be seen on the majority of solutions.
Tuesday: Forget the ridge west/trough east solutions from yesterday, much milder flow with the cold air cut off.
Wednesday: This model still looks mostly mild.
Thursday: Still looks pretty mild on most members for late week 2
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Friday: Huge change late in the period. Negative AO and NAO, after bouncing back, on all members crash to extremely low values and the end of 2 weeks...............on a slight majority, while on a minority, keep going higher and even poke above zero.The spread/disparity is "off the charts" especially with the AO but the average is MUCH colder than yesterday/Thursday.
Saturday: Not nearly as cold as Friday. AO and NAO still negative but closer to 0 as week 2 goes on(especially the NAO).
NAO close to 0 vs strongly negative reduces cold risks in the East.
Sunday: Similar to Saturday. Both the AO and NAO increase to just sub zero at the end of 2 weeks. Massive disparity on the AO with a few strongly positive now for the first time in awhile, while others are solidly negative.The average is often not the best indicator in this case because there are too many that disagree with the average. Great uncertainty with the potential for either extreme almost as high as something in the middle.
Monday: AO and NAO bounce back near 0 quicker, during week 2. Then they stay around zero(NAO) to just below zero(AO) in week 2.
The spread is also less than recent solutions. But it will change tomorrow (-:
Tuesday:NAO gets to, and stays around 0, so not a big deal without alot of spread. AO is much more uncertain. A very wide spread in solutions, some around 0 but now, several in deep negative territory as week 2 progresses.
Wednesday: Very wide spread and uncertainty. The NAO is close to zero, however, the AO is solidly negative which increases cold risks..........for now.
Thursday: AO is modestly negative. NAO around zero with less spread today.
By WxFollower - Nov. 24, 2018, 10:59 p.m.
Per history, with El Niño likely not getting any stronger than low end moderate, that is actually often a cold rather than warm signal for at least much of the eastern half of the US. I wasn’t sure if you realized this. Many of the coldest winters in the E US were actually weak to low end moderate El Niño’s: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5. 1911-12, 1939-40, 1963-4. 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8.
Then again, we still have -AAM, which is most often associated with La Nina and usually not as cold for much of the E US. Having the -AAM in combo with El Nino is quite unusual from what I learned from Radiant though I wonder if it will hang on through winter.
Does anyone have a link to an historical monthly AAM table?
By metmike - Nov. 25, 2018, 2:10 p.m.
Good points on the weak El Nino correlating with more colder than average Winters in the East.
Maybe it's because the southern stream generated from El Nino was not strong enough to have an impact far enough downstream to deflect the northern stream, so the northern stream dominated:
years ago, I don't put alot of stock in the accuracy of the magnitude since there were no widespread accurate measurements from that time frame.
No doubt they had trade winds recorded and barometric pressures (and differences) at some locations that would be useful in getting a ball park type figure, maybe even a guess but the actual sea surface temp data needed to assess this metric was not there.
By metmike - Nov. 25, 2018, 2:43 p.m.
"Then again, we still have -AAM, which is most often associated with La Nina and usually not as cold for much of the E US."
My first thought was that La Nina's are cold in the East and memory tells me that some very strong La Nina's have featured extreme cold in the Midwest and East, however I checked and what you stated, not as cold in the East seems to be what's out there on the internet. I am skeptical.
To me, this flow diagram does not make sense meteorologically..........unless you shifted the weather to the east/right several hundred miles.
A high pressure ridge to Alaska and Western Canada will feature mild Winter conditions there, not cold.
The blue cold, would be escorted south, much farther east INTO the deep trough from the Midwest to the East Coast.
By metmike - Nov. 25, 2018, 2:46 p.m.
I don't have any AAM historical data and have not studied this a great deal.
Thanks for bringing this up though Larry so that I can learn more about it.
By WxFollower - Nov. 25, 2018, 4:30 p.m.
1. I just found out I was wrong about there still being -AAM. It was that way in Sep. but it turned to +AAM in Oct and has become strongly +AAM this month. So, disregard my concern about how El Nino tends to be with -AAM.
2. Looking at records, the SE US and Mid Atlantic (I think to at least NYC) has averaged colder during weak to moderate El Nino than all La Nina's averaged out. I think the upper Midwest and most of the plains has averaged colder in La Nina. I'm not sure about the lower Midwest though I lean toward warmer in La Nina for Cincinatti.
3. IMO, there is plenty of data to suggest what years were El Nino and what were La Nina including SOI and various SST data. I've been using this for ~15 years.
By Jim_M - Nov. 26, 2018, 10:22 a.m.
Back in October, the NWS 3-4 week experimental forecast was predicting a warmer second half of November. Obviously that didn't happen. The cold keeps rolling, and it looks like we will have 2 more withdrawals now. This week and next.
NG has been dropping the last week or 2, but the potential for those spikes is very intimidating, no matter what direction you are trading. And with the chilly weather, those spikes are a very real possibility. I read that some trading firms went belly up with that last spike.
24 degrees when I got in my car this morning...in November. It's like January here in NE Ohio. In fact it's colder than some of the January's we have had in the last couple years.
Despite the mild/pretty zonal maps that remain for the end of week 2 on the various ensemble means, there continue to be colder changes before, which is what is controlling most of the movements of NG imo. Jan NG is currently still over 4.600 even after a very bearish EIA. If the mild late week 2 maps were the primary mover, NG would be at least down into the low 4's imo especially after this very bearish EIA. But if the maps keep getting colder for weeks 1 and 2, overall, NG is not going to go down easily, if at all.
NG was on the way down.........until the MUCH colder 12z GFS operational model, followed by the MUCH colder GFS ensembles came out.
The cold changes were entirely from the week 2 period.
Don't you agree Larry.
Also, the weakness overnight and early this morning, well before the EIA report, when we were already down 1,500/contract was from those products showing especially mild conditions vs the previous model runs for the same period.
The European ensemble was colder overnight but no matter and this afternoon, its a bit milder and putting some pressure on NG.
Radiant had slight cooler changes about equal in both weeks 1 and 2. The 12Z GFS suite changes were mostly in week 2. My point is that the end of week 2 snapshots showing mild day after day don't mean that much when many of the days before are revised colder. We could have day 15 mild maps for the rest of winter, but if maps are going to stay cold for much of the period before, NG is going to have a hard time dropping. I know you used to also show the snapshots of the GEFS at various periods before but you stopped. Also, you regularly only show the end of each CDN ens run. But what about day 6, day 10, etc.? Those for each ensemble have been having more impact overall imo as they seem to keep delaying the change to warmer.
The product that you mentioned, GFS ensemble mean going out 360 hours for each 24 hour period that I used to show a snap shot of is awesome.
I'll try to get back to doing that.
I'm not locked in on using the individual ensembles at 360 hours and mainly use that product to show the huge possibilities for the pattern at the end of week 2.
This is the most uncertain part of the forecast of course and the one most likely to change which is part of why I use it. It's the most challenging of all and the most intriguing of all.
When we have a powerful weather pattern change evolving, it's most likely to start showing up during the week 2 period.
Evaluating this is the most fun for me. Seeing a stronger cold front in days 5-7, within the same pattern(which just brings 3 colder days) then back to the pattern is important of course and you can see that on our high temps maps.
I am not into breaking down each day to state whether its colder or not. Since I've not received a penny for doing this, its not like its a paying job either. Howe er, I take suggestions like yours very seriously because I want people to enjoy and use this stuff.
I do it because I love weather and markets, it provides value to others and there are some great people here, like you that share that interest and are my friends.
I appreciate that very much.
Mike, what little I know of the weather I have learned from reading your posts. The weather banter that goes on here is always fascinating. Its no little thing that you take the time to update your posts everyday and it's appreciated. That Wx chimes in to bounce thoughts off of you is interesting too.
Switching to NG and looking at 30000 ft view, I think injections are done.
You are probably right, although with the supply situation as potentially bearish as it is(not storage but supplies) a week of extremely mild temps at some point could cause a small injection........not predicting that though.
You were the guy, that all Summer told us that prices were too low because storage was too low.
The market did not listen for months. Then we had some late season record heat, then we had some early season cold.
Then, we had the record cold and the huge gap higher on Sunday Night, November 5th.
So you were really proven correct!
Storage is now 644 bcf below last year as we end November.
NG did an incredible spike higher at 9:13.......... it spiked almost 1,500/contract. Looks like it took a couple of seconds.
Not sure what was going on but a zillion stops must have been hit......actually, maybe more like 500 lots or so.