Weather
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Started by Vandenplas - Feb. 22, 2018, 8:26 a.m.

We need MetMike's weather analysis.  Planting intentions aren't far away.  Where is he?  

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Re: Weather
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By mcfarm - Feb. 22, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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one thing for sure. if he was still reading posts here he would be avoiding trolls

Re: Re: Weather
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By Vandenplas - Feb. 22, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
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Limit your name calling to the NTR section.  My question is legitimate TR post.

There are  only few do-gooder posters here who insist the posts be separated.  I am not one of them.  I think it is a waste, but who am I?

I  enjoy the banter and the constant fool making, so keep it up, Curly.  Tell Larry I said hello, and keep us filled in on any new farm subsidies coming down the road.

By Jim_M - Feb. 22, 2018, 11:38 a.m.
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All I know is that if there was any hint of drought in NE Ohio, it's over.  My toes are starting to web together we have gotten so much rain.  

Re: Re: Weather
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By metmike - Feb. 22, 2018, 1:09 p.m.
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mcfarm,

Your attack was uncalled for.


Been too dry for weeks in Argentina and no substantive rains in the forecast. We are nearing March, so upside on just this for beans might be limited since the damage is probably alread done +the next 2 weeks of dry dialed in.


These current very heavy rains are a drought buster for much of the growing areas and the reason for KC wheat to plunge 20c since Tuesday's highs.


More  heavy rains on the way, which will replenish inches of soil moisture deficits that took numerous months to accumulate(since last Fall).

The questionable area for the huge rains the next 2 weeks is the far southwestern Plains. There are a couple of underlying bullish factors to offset the very bearish rains 2 week rains.  

1. The weak dollar should help all commodity prices to go higher......and increase demand more than a strong dollar.

2. For wheat, the Winter was brutal on the dormant Winter wheat crop. Extreme cold and Winter kill on a crop that did not have snow cover in the Plains makes it likely that most of the wheat will come out of dormancy, rated a category or even 2 below where it was going dormant.  Add the dry soils(that cool off up to 6 times as fast) and dessication and you have the recipe for below trend yields for the HRW crop(Plains).........even with perfect Spring weather.


The SRW crop in the Midwest/South will come out of dormancy rated less than going in but still has the chance to do pretty good with ideal weather. 

These massive rains that caused wheat to sell off and corn to be lower(with beans supported by Arg weather) will take away alot of bullish ammo that was fueling massive fund buying this year(on La Nina driven drought fears).

Initially, the buying was short covering of record shorts. This is when its the most powerful. The path up from here should have much greater resistance, unless the maps suddenly turn bone dry with no relief in sight.....but even then,  there is enough soil moisture now and prices high enough and shorts covered to make it tougher to go up.


There is little chance that these flooding rains will cause planting delay concerns. Not when they are eliminating a widespread drought in Feb and early Mar. .........a month before planting gets under way.



By mcfarm - Feb. 22, 2018, 1:50 p.m.
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attack? do you really think that was an attack?

By bcb - Feb. 22, 2018, 2:32 p.m.
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He's alive. Check mate

By cutworm - Feb. 22, 2018, 2:36 p.m.
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thanks mike

By Vandenplas - Feb. 22, 2018, 6 p.m.
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Thanks, MetMike.

By silverspiker - Feb. 23, 2018, 9:48 a.m.
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... thank you Met Mike, once again,  for your patience, love and tolerance....

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