Sell all rallies. SA will start harvesting their 2019 crop soon. If anything comes of the meeting this weekend, it's SA bean prices that will drop, ours aren't going to go much higher. $10 US beans would be a sellers dream.
jim I realize you are the biggest bear around but just for your own info the latest Elliot wave info tonite has "robust buying" and this wave leading to the 10 dollar area...not sayng its always accurate but its some ammo
The market doesn't care what I think. :) If opinions made us money, I would be a millionaire.
But you're a farmer and you know as well as anyone, while the market doesn't always seem to go in the direction of what seems apparent in fundamentals, eventually it does and the correction can be painful. Ask crude traders.
Given what we know about SA, every year the projections start out 10mt less than what eventually is produced. They could produce 130mt of beans this year! Even if China resumed buying from us just like they did before, there is an awful large back log of beans and it isn't going to get any better without a weather problem. A substantial weather problem.
I speculated that even though early estimates for SA crop were 120 MT, we would probably see 130MT based on how the last couple years have worked out. The crop seemed to get bigger with every report.
Brazilian Celeres came out with a report suggesting 130mt for 18-19.
I'll repeat as often as I have to. There is nothing bullish about beans. The market (or computer trading systems, chose your poison) are going to bankrupt farmers. Farmers are over producing on an unprecedented pace.
1. Record stock to usage
2. Record US ES
3. Record World ES
More dry weather for Argentina and S.Brazil the next week...............then huge rains, starting at the very end of week 1 in Arg.
Temperatures actually heating up in Argentina ahead of that huge system, especially the western areas.
so 3rd straight day and beans did not fill that gapping gap...old,old trading rule if gap not filled in 3 days then it would be 3 weeks or 3 months to fill
I marked it in my calendar. The gap is on the clock.
By metmike - Dec. 6, 2018, 2:16 p.m.
Beans came within less than 1c of filling their bullish gap higher earlier but held.
The low today was 897, the high last week was 896.5? for Jan beans.
However, we have a massive rain event coming for Argentina, next week, which proceeds into Brazil thats likely to put some serious pressure on beans.......absent any surprise tariff resolution news.
Good export sales this morning. Wheat and beans way up from the previous week.
Pretty decent, but any other year, there is at least another digit in the bean sales number.
You guys are probably getting sick of me, but those beans just keep piling up. In 3 months, the USDA is going to throw another 250-500 MB on top of what we already have for the new crop year. Nothing in this graph makes me want to spend $9 on beans.
Hayman,
You actually sound much more confident that jim and jim has some great points.
And its wonderful to hear both sides. Hopefully jim doesn't get offended by your confrontational tone.
You are right that beans should be going lower but they aren't. One guess that I will make is that aggressive selling that would ordinarly be taking place here based on extraordinarily bearish fundamentals is absent because of the threat of a settlement in the trade war.
Strange as it seems, no settlement is actually bullish in a way at this point in time. Traders aggressively sold earlier in the year when the massive bearish supple news was hitting harder AND there didn't appear to be any hope of a settlement for months..........selling with impunity.
We are at a point in time where the possibility of a settlement is great enough so that it looms over the market to threaten the bears constantly..........many, who would like to sell AFTER news of a settlement is out..........the bullish news is dialed in. Buy the rumor, sell the fact news.
Ironically, no settlement is bullish if the market worries about a settlement as being a legit threat for a 20-30-50 point, knee jerk spike higher during one trading session.
I would even guess that an end to the trade war, will cause that spike higher to possibly be short lived because the big sellers are waiting for that news to come out to lessen their risk.
I guess I can't be offended since Haymans posts are gone. Must have went Turbo.
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