INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 5, 2018, 7:51 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, December 5, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 333.7)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.8)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.8%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 787.7)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. November ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +227000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (previous -1.0%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 60.3)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 62.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 61.7)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 59.7)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 61.5)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 450.485M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.577M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 224.551M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.764M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.801M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.61M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 95.6%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.485M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.779M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. November Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.4)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

Thursday, December 6, 2018  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +36.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1266.5K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 628.8K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 377.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 234K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1710000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +50K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -54.02B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 212.57B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 266.58B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3054B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -59B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, December 7, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +250K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.30)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.18%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +4K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +246K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 98.3)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.7)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday leaving a one-day island top on the chart. The financial markets are closed today in honor of the U.S.’s 41st presidentPresident George Herbert Walker Bush.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish following Tuesday's huge decline signaling that a short-term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6796.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the index renews its rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 7231.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7110.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 7231.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6796.65. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.



The March S&P 500 gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday also leaving a one-day island top on the daily chart. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2702.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07 is the next upside target.First resistance is November's high crossing at 2817.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2702.21. Second support is November's low crossing at 2633.00. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 142-05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 141-04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 142-05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139-17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-16.    



March T-notes closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 120.032 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.219 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 120.032. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 120.170. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.077. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.219. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.36. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.



January heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 219.38. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.



January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.88. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.



January Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The high-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. A breakout in either direction of the symmetrical triangle will point the direction of the next trending move. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.243 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.243. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.688.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 96.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.46. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.    



The March Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.85. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.  



The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2944 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2944. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3055. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2772. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665.



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0188 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0116 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0188. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0291. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833. 



The March Canadian Dollar was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 76.33. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.54. First support is November's low crossing at 75.04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends its rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1252.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 1202.40. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.



March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 15.055. If March resumes the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620. 



March copper was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 would temper the friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.73 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.



March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.         



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 5.05 1/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53. 



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans was slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.57.  



March soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's gains. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 319.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 319.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40. 



March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.93 could open the door for a larger-degree rally off November's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.93. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is November's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88. 



Comments
By metmike - Dec. 5, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!