KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, December 6, 2018
7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +36.8%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1266.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 628.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 377.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 234K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1710000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +50K)
8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -54.02B)
Exports (USD) (previous 212.57B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 266.58B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3054B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -59B)
12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, December 7, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +250K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.30)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.18%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +4K)
Private Payroll (previous +246K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 98.3)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2)
10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6819.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 7262.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7094.12. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 7262.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6819.93. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The December S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2708.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2815.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2708.34. Second support is November's low crossing at 2627.80.
The Dow is closed today in observance of a day of mourning for George H.W. Bush. Stock-index electronic trading remains open and Dow futures show that a 100-point bounce is possible on Thursday following Tuesday's 800-point decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 24,750.73 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 24,268.74. If the Dow renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 26,277.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 26,277.82. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 24,750.73. Second support is November's low crossing at 24,268.74.
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March T-bonds closed up 1-24-points at 142-09.
March T-bonds closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 143-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 143-04. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139-27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-25.
March T-notes closed up 160-points at 120-030.
March T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 120.170 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.254 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 120.090. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 120.170. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.109. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.254.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it rebounds off the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.16.First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.03 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.04. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 210.09. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.283 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.929. Second resistance isthe 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.204. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.283. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.711.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 96.93. Second resistance isweekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.53. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3044 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2922. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3044. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2730. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0118 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above November's high crossing at 1.0204 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. If March resumes the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0291. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 76.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 76.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.49. First support is today's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. If March resumes the decline off October's high, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0922. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0877.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 13.985 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.660. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 15.040. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is weekly support crossing at 13.860.
March copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed unchanged at 3.84 3/4.
March corn closed changed on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. If Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.75 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 5.18 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2. Second is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 7 1/4-cents at 4.98.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 5.75 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed up 1 1/2-cents at 9.13 1/4.
January soybeans closed higher on Wednesday testing the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.15 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.32 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $0.40 at 317.10.
March soybean meal closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. If March extends Monday's rally, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. Closes below September's low crossing at 301.60 would confirm a downside breakout of the September-October trading range. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330.30. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed down 7 pts. at 29.04.
March soybean oil gapped closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.93 has opened the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 30.50 later this month. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is November's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.
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February hogs closed up $1.70 at $67.75.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.73 at 122.38.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 122.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed up $1.08 at $145.48.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 142.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 146.89 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.52. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.43. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine for posting these on a regular basis.
John