Anybody just a bit worried?
10 responses | 0 likes
Started by jaguar - Dec. 6, 2018, 11:49 a.m.

Dow down over 700.  That is 1500 points in two days.

Maybe we should invoke more tariffs. That seems to be working well for the shorts.

Comments
By Jim_M - Dec. 6, 2018, 12:39 p.m.
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Bean traders aren't.  

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2018, 2:16 p.m.
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Beans came within less than  1c of filling their bullish gap higher earlier but held.

The low today was 897, the high last week was 896.5? for Jan beans.

However, we have a massive rain event coming for Argentina, next week, which proceeds into Brazil thats likely to put some serious pressure on beans.......absent any surprise tariff resolution news.

By frey_1999 - Dec. 6, 2018, 2:43 p.m.
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The trade war will not be resolved anytime soon because the Chinese know how to play the long game.


The chinese are graduating STEM majors at twice the level of the US, let me repeat that so for every 100 students in each country China is Producing  40 graduates with degrees in STEM field and the US is producing only 20.

The longer that goes on the worse this countries future looks.

China will drag their feet in getting this trade war resolved because they understand that if they can get it into late 2019 early 2020 that they will be negotiating with a desperate president who will be needing a win At which time they will propose changes to the Ip rights and forced technology transfers along with some Hacking laws that will be outdated the minute the deal is signed.


The problem is the US will be looking backwards trying to settle Problems we have had with China and they will be looking for ways to fix or control things going forward.


and the reason for this is that they educate STEM and we educate financial engineers.


I have stated this more than once ---  The USA needed to fix us first and then tackle China instead we got a president that gave his supporters someone to blame and convinced his followers that we needed to fix them.


If we don't fix us first in 5 years China will be a decade ahead of US with a trade deal that is incapable of alowing the US to catch up --  and that me boys is how you play the long game.     

By jaguar - Dec. 6, 2018, 4:51 p.m.
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Nice comeback on the Dow.

By Jim_M - Dec. 7, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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I think I am going to go home and go back to bed.  I actually agree with a lot of what frey says.  

By TimNew - Dec. 7, 2018, 11:19 a.m.
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I wonder what Frey would propose as a fix for the imbalance in STEM graduates.  

By Jim_M - Dec. 7, 2018, 11:27 a.m.
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Pay for the education?  I'll bet Chinese government invests in students.  The US does what it can to bury students in student debt.  

By TimNew - Dec. 7, 2018, 1:02 p.m.
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Yeah, I remember back when I went  to school in the 70's.  In state tuition living off campus was 5-600 a semester.  The government decided that was not affordable and have been fixing it ever since.  How has that worked out so far?


Here's a hint.  What happens to prices when you start pouring money into a system?


Now,   I'm sure making it all free will fix everything.


How do we decide who gets funding for a STEM education?   Anyone who applies?  Do we use some measurement for aptitude?  Whatever approach the government uses, I can just about guarantee they'll screw it up and waste a lot of money without accomplishing anything significant, likely doing more harm than good.


But before I digress too far.


In the US, 40% of men and 29% of women who get BS degrees are getting them in STEM fields. That's a pretty good percentage. If we find we are not producing enough of our own,  we can import them.  How about we use some sort of merit based criteria for immigration.  


As far as China..   I heard for years (80's -90's) how Japan was going to take over because their government was doing so many neat things for their economy.  Still waiting for that.  I suspect China will end up much the same way. Government,  no matter how smart the politicians are, can't create solutions through central planning..

By frey_1999 - Dec. 7, 2018, 1:58 p.m.
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We do need to look at where the cost of education ends up.  Student loan defaults we be very troublesome.  It would be a some what three or four pronged attack. 

1 . Start with more early age education so 40 years ago or mode we had a huge  change in society as the single income  earner household went by the way side and we went to a dual family workforce but nobody thought how to deal with the children of these dual family incomes. What happened was they found that ws Ted to stay home to watch their children and then as it involved we chased the problems and added regulations to the industry of child care but  NEVER attempted to understand what was best for the childern. Some states have started figuring out how much learning very young minds are capable of and are beginning to address these challenges. 

2. Expose elementary aged students to many different challenges on many different levels hoping to start  the processes of eliminating what the child has no interest in doing. Yhat thought process  is a major change in thinking than today system which tries to have the child figure out what they want to do from a huge number of choices.

4. As students progress the curriculum they are directed  into would reflect those abilities and interest that have been  cultivated  in their early years. Again we have not pigeonholed them onto a career but hopefully we have eliminated when areas of employment they have no  desire to do .

5. Now comes the post secondary education  phase and how to pay for it. First off we change nothing about how the first year is paid for in that first year. As students go into their second year they start getting aid based on their grades and participation in college activities depending on chosen  fields. The more successful  you are in these challenges  the more reimbursement you can received  


By bear - Dec. 7, 2018, 8:15 p.m.
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no,  i am not worried personally for my portfolio account.    gold will hold up .

i am very worried for my kids in the future... economic growth will bet worse and worse  in the future.  

(over the course of many decades).