KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, December 13, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1177K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 895K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 711.8K)
8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -1.0%; previous +0.5%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 231K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1631000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -74K)
9:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2991B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -63B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 14, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.6%; previous 78.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.1)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.4)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
Monday, December 17, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 23.3)
Employment Idx (previous 14.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 20.4)
Prices Received (previous 13.1)
10:00 AM ET. December NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 60)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday after a series of developments boosted expectations that a U.S.-China trade deal could be reached in the coming months. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 6881.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 6449.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7000.24. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6560.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2700.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2745.57. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 2812.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2587.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,984.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow resumes the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 23,812.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,984.17. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 25,980.21. First support is Monday's low crossing at 23,881.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 23,812.03.
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March T-bonds closed down 19-points at 142-20.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 144-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 143-31. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141-24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-10.
March T-notes closed down 75-points at 120-060.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.177 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 120.300. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.125. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.039. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.177.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range for the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.16.First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 210.09. First support is November's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is November's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday and closed below last-Friday's low crossing at 4.231 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.898 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.443 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.666. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. First support is today's low crossing at 4.101. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.898.
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The March Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 96.99. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.73. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.41 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound posted a key reversal up on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2829 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2829. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2997. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0144 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0238. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 76.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 76.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.23. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0922. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0877.
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February gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1229.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1256.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1229.80. Second support is November's low crossing at 1202.40.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 15.040 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.483 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.895. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 15.040. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the August-December trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up a 1/2-cent at 3.85 1/4.
March corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed up 5-cents at 5.26.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance last-Friday's high crossing at 5.32. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 5.11 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 7 3/4-cents at 5.83.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.85 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.85 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed up 4-cents at 9.19.
January soybeans closed higher on Wednesday and above the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.15 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.32 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.83 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $1.80 at 316.50.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330.30. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed up 3 pts. at 29.24.
March soybean oil higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.39 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.39. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
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February hogs closed up $0.50 at $65.70.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.64. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.75 at 122.90.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 118.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is the reaction's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed up $0.28 at $147.58.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.55 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 143.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it bounced off the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 10.24. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target. If March renews last-Friday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 22.71 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.