KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, December 14, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.6%; previous 78.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.1)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.4)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
Monday, December 17, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 23.3)
Employment Idx (previous 14.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 20.4)
Prices Received (previous 13.1)
10:00 AM ET. December NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 60)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as trade optimism continued to fizzle out and investors focused on a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data out of China, sparking fresh worries about the state of the world’s second-biggest economy. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 6449.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's low crossing at 6881.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6964.92. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6560.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off December's high, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2689.08 would temper the bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2689.08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2734.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2587.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 144-06 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 143-31. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142-13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-25.
March T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.233 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 120.300. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.125. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.091. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.233.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.23. First support is November's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is November's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.707 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.402 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.402. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.666. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.909. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.707.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it posted a new contract high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 97.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.81. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, November's low crossing at 113.54 then the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 are the next downside targets. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. However, closes above trading range resistance crossing at 115.92 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.38. Second resistance is trading range resistance crossing at 115.92. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2798 would temper the bearish outlook. If March extends this fall's decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2798. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2979. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the Oct.-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0150 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256. Second resistance the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.40. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.11. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-week's high, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0886. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight due in part to a stronger U.S. Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1231.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1259.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80. Second support is November's low crossing at 1202.40.
March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 15.055 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.528 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper was lower overnight while extends the trading range of the past five-months. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 266.20 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the December 3rd gap crossing at 3.72 3/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 3/4-cents at 5.20.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/2. Additional closes above the 50-day moving average would open the door for additional short covering gains. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 25% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.92 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.75 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 6.06. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.84 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.96 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.84 1/2.
March soybean meal was slightly lower overnight while extending this fall's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above December's high crossing at 321.70 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.48.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.88 at $64.82.
February hogs closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.61. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed down $0.05 at 122.85.
February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 120.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is the reaction's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed up $0.40 at $147.98.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.40 would open the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.40. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday as it bounced off the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 10.24. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 22.71 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target.