KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, December 14, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.6%; previous 78.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.1)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.4)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
Monday, December 17, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 23.3)
Employment Idx (previous 14.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 20.4)
Prices Received (previous 13.1)
10:00 AM ET. December NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 60)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 6449.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 6881.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6963.20. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6560.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2687.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2733.42. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 2812.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2587.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.
The Dow gapped down and closed sharply lower on Friday. Today's sharp decline was triggered by a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data from China and Europe which, sparked renewed concerns about the state of the world’s second-biggest economy and prospects for global growth. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 23,812.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,837.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,837.72. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 25,980.21. First support is Monday's low crossing at 23,881.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 23,812.03.
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March T-bonds closed up 7-points at 142-21.
March T-bonds closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 144-06 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 143-31. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142-13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-25.
March T-notes closed up 40-points at 120-115.
March T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.232 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 120.300. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.125. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.088. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.232.
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January crude oil closed lower on Friday while extending the trading range for the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.16.First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 210.09. First support is November's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is November's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.707 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.395 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.666. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.707. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.437.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 97.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.80. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2799 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2799. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2980. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline and close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0150 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0238. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 75.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.11. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0922. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0877.
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February gold closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1231.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1256.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1231.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80.
March silver closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 15.040 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.527 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 14.900. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 15.040. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
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March Corn closed up a 1/2-cent at 3.84 3/4.
March corn closed fractionally higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed down 6-cents at 5.30.
March wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.17 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance Thursday's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 5.18 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.18. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 5.84.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.75 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.09 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
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January soybeans closed down 7-cents at 9.00.
January soybeans closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.84 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.32 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $1.40 at 311.50.
March soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330.30. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed down 38 pts. at 28.71.
March soybean oil lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.47. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
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February hogs closed down $0.33 at $64.50.
February hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.60. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed down $0.45 at 122.40.
February cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 120.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 123.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is the reaction's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.40 at $147.58.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.26 would open the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.26. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
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March coffee closed lower on Friday and below the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 10.24. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 24.10 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!