INO Morning Market Commentary
0 responses | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Feb. 28, 2018, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, February 28, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 372.9)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -6.6%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 225.5)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -6.2%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1183.1)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +4.7%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%0

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (previous 65.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 110.1)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 420.479M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.616M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 249.334M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.261M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.945M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.422M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 88.1%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.454M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.17M)

 

                        

 

4:00 PM ET. Foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities preliminary results

 



 

 

Thursday, March 1, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 222K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -7K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1875000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -73K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 55.5)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 59.1)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 72.7)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 54.2)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 52.3)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 65.4)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 64.5)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1760B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -124B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. February Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 54.4)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. February Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

                       Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.16M)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

Friday, March 2, 2018  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 72.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 95.7)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 86.3)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.5)

 



 

 

  N/A               Texas Independence Day

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6702.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 7009.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6702.08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6504.28.  



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 2839.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 2684.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 2684.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2651.19.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-23. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 142-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.  



March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.264 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last September's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.264. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.062. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.39 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 60.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 60.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.  



April heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.87 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.87. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97. 



April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's high, the reaction high crossing at 208.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 201.22. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.46. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.28. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19. 



April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.718 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.718. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 2.551. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.487.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 90.46 are needed to confirm that a double bottom with January's low has been posted. Closes below February's low crossing at 88.15 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 87.45. First resistance is the February's high crossing at 90.46. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at 89.43. Second support is February's low crossing at 88.15.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing at 122.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.71. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. First support is February's low crossing at 122.34. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.15. 



The March British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3822 is the next downside target. However, closes below February's low crossing at 1.3780 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.4160 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4160. Second high is February's high crossing at 1.4302. First support is February's low crossing at 1.3780. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3486.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 1.0589 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0725 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0589. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0512.     



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term,. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.59. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.52.



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9276 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9276. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9105.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Tuesday's decline, February's low crossing at 1309.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is February's low crossing at 1309.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70.



May silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Tuesday's decline marked a downside breakout of a symmetrical triangle, which as been forming this month. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 16.130 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 16.950 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.950. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is February's low crossing at 16.130. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635. 



May copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 317.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 330.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 330.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 317.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.78 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.82 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4.  



May wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.94 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 4.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.94. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.52.    



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 1/4-cents at 5.04 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's high, the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.21 3/4. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 4.75 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.05 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.21 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.75 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.69 3/4.   



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.27 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.20 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.59 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.41 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.20 3/4.



May soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 414.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 380.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 398.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 380.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 362.40.



May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.91. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is February's low crossing at 31.61. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed unchanged at $69.95. 



April hogs closed unchanged on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.11 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 71.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.11. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60.



April cattle closed up $0.25 at 124.25. 



April cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below reaction low crossing at 122.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

April Feeder cattle closed up $1.25 at $149.20. 



April Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 145.63 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.88. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 158.73. First support is February's low crossing at 145.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 143.20.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.48 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.   



May cocoa closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 22.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



May sugar closed sharply lower on Tuesday marking a downside breakout of February's trading range. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.51 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 84.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
No replies yet. Be the first!