Monday Weather
16 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:17 a.m.

8 days until Christmas!  Just another day?  Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.  Mild and quiet weather pattern coming up. Wet weather south, then especially east later next week.


Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes


Snowfall the next 3 days from the NAM model


Forecast Hour:  069
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif

   

nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    


            

                                

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:18 a.m.
Like Reply

High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

MILD!

   

               

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:

Some cooling late week/next weekend but still not very cold by late December standards.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
Like Reply

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Above average everywhere, much above in the N.Plains and vicinity!



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
Like Reply

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Mild temps. Southern Canada is very mild, so cold fronts

will lack real cold air.  New big storm Thursday in the South that tracks north/northeast. Northwest fringe of that one will be just cold enough for a bit of snow.

 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:21 a.m.
Like Reply

The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.


 Dry for the next week in the Plains to Western Midwest.  New storm Thursday in the South, tracks north to northeast.....mostly rain but just cold enough for snow on the northwest fringe.



Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
Like Reply

Next big snow event early in week 2 below:

 <<

  

Forecast Hour:  264
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/06/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_264_snodpth_chng_sprd.gif

   

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_264_snodpth_chng_sprd.gif

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
Like Reply

Current Dew Points


Dry across the country.

  
Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from MONDAY:

Last week progressing to today:

Tuesday: Ridge West, trough East not as amplified or quite as cold.

Wednesday:  Not much different than Tuesday but still pretty cold and by far the coldest model.

Thursday: This model continues to insist on it turning much colder later in week 2 and has been the coldest of all the models by far for quite awhile.

Friday: MUCH milder, more zonal(west to east jet stream) for the average and less deviation south of the polar vortex on the colder ones.

Saturday: Majority remain mild but several members on this model won't give up the idea of the polar vortex shifting south/northern stream bringing down frigid air, which will be getting charged up in Canada during week 2.

Sunday: Colder solution than yesterday(which was pretty mild). Much agreement on cross polar flow and Canada getting charged up with bitterly cold air. The question is how much of that, if any will be delivered across the border and where will the intrusions be?

Monday: Mllder than yesterdays solutions. Not the numerous members with the northern stream plunging south like Sunday.  Very cold in Canada however, and some of that gets south of the border.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 01, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
Like Reply

0Z GFS Ensembles

Last week progressing to today:

Tuesday: Similar to yesterday

Wednesday: Similar to Tuesday but the 6z run that came after this was VERY mild.

Thursday: Mix between mild and cold. Battle between southern stream and northern stream. Canada, which will be very mild the next week, may get charged up with cold that will be available for depositing into the US, will any north to south flow that develops.

Friday: Mild members have a majority but still some cold looking ones.

Saturday: Mild solutions have the vast majority.

Sunday:  The milds win, mainly because  a southern stream upper level trough is far enough west to bring warm moist air eastward. Not much northern stream, that the Canadian model is gung ho on with numerous members/solutions.

Monday: The milds win again...........especially warm in the Southeast and wet for much of the country...............snowy in the colder air in the Plains/Upper Midwest.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
Like Reply

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Last week at the top, progressing to today:


Tuesday: AO has a few members that dive strongly negative but some much higher....huge spread. NAO near 0.

Wednesday: AO goes negative in week 2(without the extreme negatives from yesterday), then drifts back towards zero at the end of week 2. NAO near zero.

Thursday:  NAO is close to zero. AO, drops negative(helps with cold air delivery) but recovers close to zero near the end. Nothing compelling. PNA which will be positive the next week, drops slowly towards zero in week 2...........nothing compelling.

Friday: NAO close to 0. AO drops negative but is back near zero late week 2(a few positive) and not as favorable for cold air delivery in late December as earlier this week.

Saturday: AO a bit negative. NAO is positive. Flow pattern thru late week 2 is generally unfavorable for cold air to work south. Most models have a mild, zonal flow.

Sunday: Tiny changes since Saturday. AO close to zero but a few negative and one outlier strongly negative. Probably not worth noting, except for the  fact that this is what we might look for(if there was more support than outliers) if the pattern was going to  morph to much colder at the end of the month.

Monday: AO is negative which favors cold air making it south. NAO is a bit positive which favors milder weather along the East Coast and for the cold air entry point to be farther west(Plains and westward)


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


 Updated early this afternoon.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

North America sets all-time record snowfall in November


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/10/north-america-sets-all-time-record-snowfall-in-november/

The month of November ended up with the most snowfall ever recorded in North America during the satellite era which goes back to the 1960’s.  Unusual cold for the month from Mexico-to-US-to-Canada contributed to this snowfall record in North America. The November snowfall extent in the Northern Hemisphere was the third highest ever recorded in the satellite era and continues an upward trend in recent years.


 Snow cover anomalies for the month of November across the “Northern Hemisphere”; courtesy Rutgers Snow Lab

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
Like Reply

     By cliff-e - Dec. 15, 2018, 3:32 p.m.            

            

Very mild and warm for us in W.Mn with temps. In upper 30s to mid 40s for a few days and a few more to come. We've seen people in boats on rivers enjoying some fishing and also on shore angling when usually there is ice fishing by now. Winter sports enthusiasts are disappointed but we know the weather can turn on a dime so we'll just enjoy it for now. :-)

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                                    


                            By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 4:09 p.m.            

           

Thanks cliff!

Temperatures compared to average are some of the mildest in your neck of the woods.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



                By WxFollower - Dec. 15, 2018, 9:20 p.m.            

            

Mike,

 Thanks very much for doing these daily updates!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


                            

                By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 11:30 p.m.            

          

YW Larry!


Thank YOU for all your valuable contributions. 

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 6:29 p.m.
Like Reply

The European 30 day forecast came out very late this afternoon and is lending some support to natural gas prices with it frigid maps for early January.

This product does not have a lot of skill but lately the market has traded off of it because the ng in storage is at 15 year lows:

The first map is late on New Years Day, then every 24 hours after that:

















 


By WxFollower - Dec. 17, 2018, 7:39 p.m.
Like Reply

 Yeah, Mike, a 3 cent gap up likely influenced by this is also my guess. Of course, it was extra primed to bounce on anything after such a huge drop the last week. Weeks 3-5 are sig colder while week 6 is slightly colder than the prior run. It is like a reversal of the last run's much warmer run and shows how low the skill is with every week changing heavily. The next run could easily reverse again. However, based on it being a weakish El Nino and assuming the MJO will likely be coming around into the colder phases by mid-Jan, I actually think this newest Euro weeklies is on the right track though it will probably be a rather slow transition. Week 3, though colder than the prior run, is still warm in the E 1/3 of the US though not nearly as warm as week 2. Week 4 is near normal for most of the US though it was very warm on the prior run and it is coolest SE. Week 5 is the coldest of the 6 weeks with a few degrees below normal in the E US but centered on the SE US, consistent with El Nino climo. Week 6 averages near normal in the E US but is slightly colder than normal SE. Overall, it appears the real pattern change to colder for the E US would occur ~1/10 based on this run.

By wxgrant - Dec. 17, 2018, 10:28 p.m.
Like Reply

If this is correct there will be a very good chance of below average temperatures during January. I know it is a 46 day ensemble but this seemed to do well during November. It was our 3rd coldest November on record in Cape. The Ensemble NAO shows a negative pattern all month as well. 

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2018, 11:50 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much Grant!

Sustained -AO for the entire month of January (and -NAO based on your comment) with some pretty frigid air built up in the higher latitudes will provide the potential for a very cold January.

If this comes to pass, then natural gas is a buy here.............if it starts showing up on 2 week model forecasts.

If 2 week maps continue to hold off the cold, then we can still go lower......until major cold, at the very least starts showing up in that part of the forecast.