KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, December 20, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 206K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -27K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1661000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +25K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1064.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 795.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 754.1K)
8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 14.5; previous 12.9)
Prices Paid (previous 39.3)
Employment (previous 16.3)
New Orders (previous 9.1)
Prices Received (previous 21.9)
Delivery Times (previous 5.0)
Inventories (previous 9.5)
Shipments (previous 21.6)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. November Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)
Leading Index (previous 112.1)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2914B)
Working Gas In Storage, (Cbf) Net Chg (previous -77B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 21, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -4.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.5%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +0.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.2%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 97.0; previous 97.5)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +1.8%)
11:00 AM ET. Dec. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 24)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 27)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 15)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 16)
N/A Deadline for new funding deal to avert partial U.S. Govt shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as is consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by a quarter percent. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, last-February's low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6161.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6719.18 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6719.14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6888.74. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6287.00. Second support is last-February's low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6161.00.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this fall's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2407.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2655.32 would temper the bearish outlook.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2594.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2655.32. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2564.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2407.97.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 146-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 145-30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 146-23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143-20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-29.
March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.200 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.035 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 121.135. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.200. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.209. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.035.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.77. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.36. First support is the overnight low crossing at 45.82. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
February heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. Closes above reaction high crossing at 194.43 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.43. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 205.57. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.89. Second support is the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.
February unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 131.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 151.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 160.46. First support is the overnight low crossing at 133.38. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 131.18.
February Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.117 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.388 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 3.718. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.117. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.433. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.388.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 97.19. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.94. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last-Friday's decline, November's low crossing at 113.54 then the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 are the next downside targets. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 115.92 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the October-December-trading range. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.16. Second resistance is trading range resistance crossing at 115.92. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2760 would temper the bearish outlook. If March resumes this fall's decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2760. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2936. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the Oct.-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256. Second resistance the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.13. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 75.89. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 74.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0886. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1285.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1235.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1236.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80.
March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 15.055 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.595 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 260.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 265.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the December 3rd gap crossing at 3.72 3/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 5.08 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.82 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 6.06. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.86 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.00 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.86 3/4.
March soybean meal was higher overnight while extending this fall's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. Closes above December's high crossing at 321.70 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.61. Second support is the December 3rd gap crossing at 28.12.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.05 at $62.70.
February hogs closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.78. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 68.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 62.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed down $0.33 at 122.25.
February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 120.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 123.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is the reaction's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed unchanged at $146.20.
January Feeder cattle closed unchanged on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off last Thursday's high, December's low crossing at 143.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.76 would open the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.76. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is December's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee posted a key reversal up on Wednesday as it rebounded off September's low crossing at 9.86. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 24.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.00 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 76.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.