KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +3.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.1%)
9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
10:00 AM ET. December Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 14)
Shipments Idx (previous 12)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering in late-overnight trading as is consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are very oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5752.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6612.35 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6368.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6612.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5820.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5752.25.
The March S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2609.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2510.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2609.99. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2317.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 146-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 146-03. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 146-23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-24.
March T-notes was lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 122.089 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121.205. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.089. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.277. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.140.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.82. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 42.36. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
February heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at 163.80. Second support is the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 2016 low crossing at 110.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.38. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09. Second support is the 2016 low crossing at 110.45.
February Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If February renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.156 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.057 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.665. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.006. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.252. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.156.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 94.91 is the next downside target. If March renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 95.63. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last-Friday's decline, November's low crossing at 113.53 then the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 are the next downside targets. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 116.45 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the November-December-trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2902 is the next upside target. If March resumes this fall's decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2902. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2957. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the Oct.-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256. Second resistance the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 69.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.36. Second resistance is the 20-day crossing at 74.82. First support is the overnight low crossing at 73.59. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 69.80.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0895 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0914. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0895. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1285.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1237.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1236.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80.
March silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 15.055 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.598 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 260.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 264.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower on Monday.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.74 3/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.10 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/4-cent at 5.02 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, psychological support crossing at 5.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.80 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.58. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.50.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed fractionally lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.01 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.79 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.57.
March soybean meal closed higher on Monday while extending this fall's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 27.42 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74. First support is Monday's low crossing at 28.01. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $1.25 at $61.03.
February hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.26. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 68.83. First support is today's low crossing at 61.03. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.35 at 122.70.
February cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 123.67 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 121.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 123.28. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 123.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at 123.67. Second support is December's crossing at 119.82.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.08 at $147.35.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.58 would open the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. If January resumes the decline off last Thursday's high, December's low crossing at 143.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is December's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 24.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.98 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower for the fifth day in a row on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.